Phillies vs. Rays Odds & Betting Predictions - July 4, 2023

Phillies at Rays

8:10 pm • MLB Network

Philadelphia Phillies

9-9

3 - 1

Tampa Bay Rays

8-9

pitcher		team	era	w-l
Z.Eflin			3.50	16-8
A.Nola			4.46	12-9

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Phillies 9-9	+1.5-176	o8-110	+120
Rays 8-9	-1.5+143	u8-110	-145

Tuesday 8:10 p.m.

July 04, 2023

Tropicana FieldSt. Petersburg

Z.Eflin o5.5 Ks+100

PHI +122

0.61u

Under 2.5 (F5)+242

1.21u

Under 3.5 (F5)+128

0.96u

TB -138

$150.00

SportsMadeEasy tail - double whale

A.Nola o1.5 BB-120

1.2u

Z.Eflin o5.5 Ks+100

L.Raley o0.5 HR+520

0.05u

Dingers

Z.Eflin o5.5 Ks+105

0.11u

Bet to -110

TB -141 (F5)

Under 4.5 (F5)-120

0.83u

Line freeze, expecting a pitcher’s duel

TB -0.5 (F5)-110

1.1u

PHI +125

0.38u

PHI +120

1.2u

PHI +120 (F5)

1.2u

Elfin facing his previous team, he is not him

TB -140

0.7u

Project Eflin -190, Phillies poor wRC+ v Righties

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Yandy Diaz is batting .283 on breaking pitches from RHP since last season -- 15th best in MLB-- 88th Percentile. Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 28% of the time since last season -- fourth highest among qualified SPs-- 88th Percentile.

Yandy Diaz has a miss rate of only 20% on breaking pitches since last season -- fourth best in MLB-- 97th Percentile. Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 28% of the time since last season -- fourth highest among qualified SPs-- 88th Percentile.

Zach Eflin has allowed a slugging percentage of just .163 (7 Total Bases / 43 ABs) on fastballs away this season -- 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .379 -- 98th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 38% of the time (112/297) when he's behind in the count this season -- 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% -- 93rd Percentile.

Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 69% (655/954) against right-handed batters this season -- 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% -- 93rd Percentile.

Zach Eflin allowed a batting average of .272 vs right-handed batters (ninth worst)-- 13th Percentile and just .188 vs left-handed batters this season (third best among qualified SPs)-- 95th Percentile.

The Rays are 53-26 (.671) after a home win since last season -- 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .540.

The Rays are just 10-20 (.333) after a win as underdogs since last season -- tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.

The Phillies are 11-6 (.647) after a home loss this season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .503.

The Phillies are 79-52 (.603) after a win since last season -- tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .516.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Rays are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Rays are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Rays are 44-37 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Rays' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Rays' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rays	89-73	45-36	44-37	32-36	55-34
Phillies	75-87	39-42	36-45	64-66	10-21

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Rays	68-88-6	36-40-5	32-48-1	29-38-1	36-48-5
Phillies	78-76-8	36-40-5	42-36-3	56-68-6	22-7-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Rays	80-82	42-39	38-43	36-32	42-47
Phillies	95-67	54-27	41-40	82-48	12-19

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 2nd	@SEA	L 6-7	+1.5 W	O 7.5	SEA +110
Jul 1st	@SEA	L 3-8	-1.5 L	O 7	SEA -112
Jul 1st	@SEA	W 15-4	-1.5 W	O 7.5	TB -134
Jun 29th	@ARI	W 6-1	+1.5 W	U 9.5	TB +100
Jun 29th	@ARI	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 9	TB -155

Ha-Seong Kim
IF
Kim is out with shoulder
Out

Weston Wilson
OF
Wilson is out with oblique
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RA.Nola, P	104	7.1	12	1
LJ.Alvarado, P	7	0.2	0	0
RC.Kimbrel, P	15	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1K.Schwarber, LF	1-4	1	0
2T.Turner, SS	0-4	0	0
3N.Castellanos, RF	0-4	0	0
4B.Harper, DH	2-4	1	1
5J.Realmuto, C	0-4	0	0
6B.Stott, 2B	2-4	1	1
7A.Bohm, 3B	1-3	0	1
8D.Hall, 1B	0-4	0	0
9B.Marsh, CF	0-3	0	0

PITCHER		PC	IP	K	ER
RZ.Eflin, P		102	7	9	2
LJ.Beeks, P		26	2	3	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1Y.Diaz, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
2W. Franco, SS	2-4	1	1	1
3L.Raley, DH	0-3	0	0	0
3H.Ramirez, PH	1-1	0	0	0
3H.Ramirez, DH	1-1	0	0	0
4R.Arozarena, LF	1-4	0	0	0
5I.Paredes, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
6B.Lowe, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
7J.Siri, CF	0-4	0	0	0
8C.Bethancourt, C	1-4	0	0	0
9J.Lowe, RF	0-3	0	0	0