Pirates vs. Royals Odds & Betting Predictions - July 9, 2025

Pirates at Royals

11:40 pm • SportsNet PT

Pittsburgh Pirates

38-57

3 - 4

Kansas City Royals

46-49

pitcher		team	era	w-l
K.Bubic			2.49	7-6
B.Falter			3.79	6-4

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Pirates 38-57	+1.5	+1.5-123	o8.5-115	+159
Royals 46-49	u8.5	-1.5+103	u8.5-105	-192

Wednesday 11:40 p.m.

July 09, 2025

Kauffman StadiumKansas City

Under 8.5 (Live)-110

PIT +165

#bobbyfades

Under 8.5+100

Going back to this game featuring another pair of lefties. Andrew Heaney vs Noah Cameron didn't work out for me in Round 1, but I'll take u8.5 for Round 2 featuring Bailey Falter vs Kris Bubic. Both teams have been bottom-6 offenses against LHP this season, and that's really what I'm banking on here. Bailey Falter's 3.69 ERA feels fluky, but he has a 4.02 xERA and he's generating the most soft contact since his rookie season. Kris Bubic has been fantastic this season on the other side, as his 2.36 ERA is backed by a 3.03 xERA. Since both of their bullpens have ERAs that rank among the top half of the league, I'll target the full game u8.5 instead of the F5 at even odds.

PIT +0.5 (F5)+114

Under 4.5 (F5)-110

PIT u3.5 Team Total-118

Full writeup: https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/pirates-vs-royals-prediction-pick-odds-for-wednesday-july-9-qs?utm_source=action_app&utm_medium=app&utm_campaign=article_share

PIT +160

Due Teams That Almost Did Overall: 132-96-0,58% (ROI:30%) Season:8-5-0,62% (ROI:

Over 0.5 (1st Inn)-105

1.05u

K.Bubic o6.5 Ks+130

K.Bubic o6.5 Ks+110

Elite matchup with the Pirates, whose active roster has the second highest strikeout rate in the league against lefties. Bubic's swinging-strike rate also implies his strikeout rate could rise as the season goes along.

Pirates vs Royals: Team Total Bet for Tonight
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No props found

MLB Public Betting

Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Royals are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Royals are 29-18 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Royals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 18 of Royals' 48 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Royals	50-45	21-27	29-18	14-21	35-24
Pirates	49-46	27-20	22-26	9-17	38-29

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Royals	37-57-1	18-30	19-27-1	15-20	22-36-1
Pirates	36-54-5	20-24-3	16-30-2	9-17	26-36-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Royals	46-49	23-25	23-24	18-17	27-32
Pirates	38-57	26-21	12-36	12-14	25-42

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 8th	PIT	W 4-3	-1.5 L	U 7.5	KC -137
Jul 7th	PIT	W 9-3	-1.5 W	O 8.5	KC -154
Jul 6th	@ARI	W 4-0	+1.5 W	U 10	KC +131
Jul 5th	@ARI	L 1-7	+1.5 L	U 9	ARI +112
Jul 5th	@ARI	W 9-3	-1.5 W	O 8.5	KC -105

Michael Lorenzen
SP
Michael Lorenzen (illness) has been scratched, Angel Zerpa will start Saturday,
Out
Kyle Wright
SP
Wright is out with shoulder
Out

Johan Oviedo
SP
Oviedo is questionable with elbow
Questionable
Endy Rodriguez
1B
Rodriguez is out with elbow
Out
Jared Jones
SP
Jones is out with elbow
Out
Jared Triolo
SS
Triolo is questionable with back
Questionable
Spencer Horwitz
1B
Horwitz is questionable with wrist
Questionable

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LB.Falter, P	74	4.2	3	3
RB.Ashcraft, P	45	2.1	3	0
RI.Mattson, P	17	1	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1T.Pham, LF	3-4	1	0
2A.McCutchen, DH	1-3	1	0
3B.Reynolds, RF	1-4	1	0
4N.Gonzales, 2B	0-4	0	0
5O.Cruz, CF	1-4	0	1
6K.Hayes, 3B	1-4	0	2
7J.Bart, C	0-3	0	0
7A.Frazier, PH	1-1	0	0
8J.Triolo, 1B	0-1	0	0
8S.Horwitz, PH	0-2	0	0
8S.Horwitz, 1B	0-2	0	0
9I.Kiner-Falefa, SS	0-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LK.Bubic, P	83	5.2	6	3
RJ.Schreiber, P	22	1.1	1	0
RL.Erceg, P	10	1	1	0
RC.Estevez, P	16	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.India, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
2B.Witt, SS	1-3	0	0	0
3V.Pasquantino, DH	1-4	0	0	0
4M.Garcia, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
5S.Perez, 1B	3-4	2	2	2
6J.Caglianone, RF	1-4	1	1	2
6J.Rave, RF	0-0	0	0	0
7N.Loftin, LF	0-4	0	0	0
8F.Fermin, C	2-3	0	0	0
9T.Tolbert, CF	0-2	0	0	0
9K.Isbel, PH	1-2	0	0	0
9K.Isbel, CF	1-2	0	0	0