Pirates vs. Royals Odds & Betting Predictions - July 9, 2025

Pirates at Royals

11:40 pm • SportsNet PT

Pittsburgh Pirates

0-0

3 - 4

Kansas City Royals

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
K.Bubic			2.55	8-7
B.Falter			11.25	0-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Pirates 0-0	+1.5	+1.5-123	o8.5-115	+159
Royals 0-0	u8.5	-1.5+103	u8.5-105	-192

Wednesday 11:40 p.m.

July 09, 2025

Kauffman StadiumKansas City

Under 8.5 (Live)-110

PIT +165

#bobbyfades

Under 8.5+100

Going back to this game featuring another pair of lefties. Andrew Heaney vs Noah Cameron didn't work out for me in Round 1, but I'll take u8.5 for Round 2 featuring Bailey Falter vs Kris Bubic. Both teams have been bottom-6 offenses against LHP this season, and that's really what I'm banking on here. Bailey Falter's 3.69 ERA feels fluky, but he has a 4.02 xERA and he's generating the most soft contact since his rookie season. Kris Bubic has been fantastic this season on the other side, as his 2.36 ERA is backed by a 3.03 xERA. Since both of their bullpens have ERAs that rank among the top half of the league, I'll target the full game u8.5 instead of the F5 at even odds.

PIT +0.5 (F5)+114

Under 4.5 (F5)-110

PIT u3.5 Team Total-118

Full writeup: https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/pirates-vs-royals-prediction-pick-odds-for-wednesday-july-9-qs?utm_source=action_app&utm_medium=app&utm_campaign=article_share

PIT +160

Due Teams That Almost Did Overall: 132-96-0,58% (ROI:30%) Season:8-5-0,62% (ROI:

Over 0.5 (1st Inn)-105

1.05u

K.Bubic o6.5 Ks+130

K.Bubic o6.5 Ks+110

Elite matchup with the Pirates, whose active roster has the second highest strikeout rate in the league against lefties. Bubic's swinging-strike rate also implies his strikeout rate could rise as the season goes along.

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No props found

MLB Public Betting

Royals are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Royals are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Royals are 44-37 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Royals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 31 of Royals' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Royals	82-80	38-43	44-37	32-38	49-40
Pirates	90-72	48-33	42-39	19-26	69-45

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Royals	71-90-1	31-50	40-40-1	30-40	41-47-1
Pirates	61-92-9	33-43-5	28-49-4	17-26-2	42-65-7

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Royals	82-80	43-38	39-42	40-30	40-49
Pirates	71-91	44-37	27-54	22-23	48-66

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 8th	PIT	W 4-3	-1.5 L	U 7.5	KC -137
Jul 7th	PIT	W 9-3	-1.5 W	O 8.5	KC -154
Jul 6th	@ARI	W 4-0	+1.5 W	U 10	KC +131
Jul 5th	@ARI	L 1-7	+1.5 L	U 9	ARI +112
Jul 5th	@ARI	W 9-3	-1.5 W	O 8.5	KC -105

Johan Oviedo
SP
Oviedo is questionable with elbow
Questionable

Endy Rodriguez
1B
Rodriguez is out with elbow
Out
Jared Jones
SP
Jones is out with elbow
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LB.Falter, P	74	4.2	3	3
RB.Ashcraft, P	45	2.1	3	0
RI.Mattson, P	17	1	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1T.Pham, LF	3-4	1	0
2A.McCutchen, DH	1-3	1	0
3B.Reynolds, RF	1-4	1	0
4N.Gonzales, 2B	0-4	0	0
5O.Cruz, CF	1-4	0	1
6K.Hayes, 3B	1-4	0	2
7J.Bart, C	0-3	0	0
7A.Frazier, PH	1-1	0	0
8J.Triolo, 1B	0-1	0	0
8S.Horwitz, PH	0-2	0	0
8S.Horwitz, 1B	0-2	0	0
9I.Kiner-Falefa, SS	0-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LK.Bubic, P	83	5.2	6	3
RJ.Schreiber, P	22	1.1	1	0
RL.Erceg, P	10	1	1	0
RC.Estevez, P	16	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.India, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
2B.Witt, SS	1-3	0	0	0
3V.Pasquantino, DH	1-4	0	0	0
4M.Garcia, 3B	1-4	1	0	0
5S.Perez, 1B	3-4	2	2	2
6J.Caglianone, RF	1-4	1	1	2
6J.Rave, RF	0-0	0	0	0
7N.Loftin, LF	0-4	0	0	0
8F.Fermin, C	2-3	0	0	0
9T.Tolbert, CF	0-2	0	0	0
9K.Isbel, PH	1-2	0	0	0
9K.Isbel, CF	1-2	0	0	0