Pirates vs. Royals Odds & Betting Predictions - July 7, 2025

The biggest thing for me is these are two of the worst teams against left-handed pitching, and both teams are starting lefties (Andrew Heaney and Noah Cameron). This season, the Royals rank 26th in wRC+ versus LHP (73) while the Pirates rank 29th in wRC+ (71). In other words, both offenses have produced runs at a bottom-five rate against southpaws. Cameron has been fantastic this season with a 2.56 ERA backed by a 3.32 xERA. He's only striking out 19.3% of batters which is way lower than his minor league rates, but his underlying metrics look legit. Heaney has also seen a drop in his strikeout rate this season (18.4%) but I'm banking on run prevention in this spot against the Royals.

Both of these teams' offenses have stunk, plain and simple. Both of these teams rank bottom 5 in wRC+ and wOBA vs LHP this season. Cameron (2-4, 2.56 ERA) will face Heaney (4-7, 4.16 ERA), and I do not expect many runs in this game. Cameron looked amazing in his first few starts, but recently has come back down to earth. However, that was against the Yankees and Dodgers, so it was to be expected, but outside of those 2 games, he has looked great. As for the Royals side, this team ranks dead last in runs per game. They are scoring a league-worst 3.33 runs per game at home this season. Heaney, like Cameron, has pitched pretty well outside of a few blowup games vs top offenses. This KC lineup is NOT a top offense, so I think he will have a nice start here. The under has hit in 7/L8 home games for the Royals, and with two pitchers that are pitching well facing two struggling offenses, I love this game to sail under yet again in Kansas City.

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