Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds & Betting Predictions - September 28, 2023

Red Sox at Orioles

10:35 pm • MASN

Boston Red Sox

1-5

0 - 2

Baltimore Orioles

3-3

pitcher		team	era	w-l
D.Kremer			4.12	13-5
C.Sale			4.30	6-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 1-5	N/A	N/A	N/A
Orioles 3-3	N/A	N/A	N/A

Thursday 10:35 p.m.

September 28, 2023

Oriole Park at Camden YardsBaltimore

BAL -125

$2.00

Over 7.5+100

1.2u

Both Kremer and Sale allow a decent amount of runs when their teams face off against each other. I like the even money here.

Over 7.5-110

1.1u

C.Sale u15.5 Outs-170

0.59u

BOS +120

0.5u

Featured Insight
Red Sox have struck out just 22% since last season -- tied for 10th-lowest in MLB. Orioles have a strikeout rate of just 22% since last season -- ninth-lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
The Orioles have answered-back in 34% of innings after an opponent scores since last season -- tied for sixth-highest in MLB. Red Sox have allowed a run 34% of the time after an opposing score since last season -- seventh-highest in MLB.

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Thursday MLB Props: 3 Pitching Lines Showing Value
Alex Hinton•
Sep 28, 2023 UTC

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The Red Sox are just 33-46 (.418) after a loss this season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .483.

Rafael Devers had an OPS of .672 with two strikes last season -- 11th best in MLB-- 92nd Percentile. Dean Kremer allowed an OPS of .597 (270 PAs) with two strikes last season -- 13th worst among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- ninth Percentile.

Anthony Santander is slugging .561 on breaking pitches this season -- 10th best in MLB-- 92nd Percentile. Chris Sale has thrown his slider 37% of the time this season -- 13th highest among starting pitchers with at least 62 total SL-- 91st Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of 49% (158/320) against Chris Sale with two-strikes this season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 40% -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .139 (5-for-36) against Chris Sale -- 6th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .232 -- 94th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 27% (138/507) against Dean Kremer this season -- tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% -- sixth Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Orioles are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Orioles are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Orioles' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Orioles' 6 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Orioles	2-4	2-4	N/A	2-3	0-1
Red Sox	1-5	N/A	1-5	1-4	0-1

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Orioles	3-3	3-3	N/A	2-3	1-0
Red Sox	4-2	N/A	4-2	3-2	1-0

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Orioles	3-3	3-3	N/A	3-2	0-1
Red Sox	1-5	N/A	1-5	1-4	0-1

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 27th	WSH	W 5-1	-	-	-
Sep 26th	WSH	W 1-0	-	-	-
Sep 24th	@CLE	W 5-1	-	-	-
Sep 23rd	@CLE	W 2-1	-	-	-
Sep 22nd	@CLE	L 8-9	-	-	-

Heston Kjerstad
LF
Kjerstad is out with hamstring
Out
Jordan Westburg
3B
Westburg is out with elbow
Out
Jackson Holliday
2B
Holliday is out with hand
Out

Tanner Houck
SP
Houck is out with arm
Out
Triston Casas
1B
Casas is out with knee
Out
Patrick Sandoval
SP
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
SP
Crawford is out with wrist
Out
Romy Gonzalez
1B
Gonzalez is out with shoulder
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LC.Sale, P	69	5	2	1
RJ.Winckowski, P	23	1.2	2	0
LB.Bernardino, P	7	0.1	1	0
RZ.Kelly, P	23	1	0	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Rafaela, CF	0-4	0	0	0
2R.Devers, 3B	1-3	0	0	0
3M.Yoshida, DH	0-2	0	0	0
3A.Duvall, PH	0-2	0	0	0
3A.Duvall, DH	0-2	0	0	0
4A.Verdugo, RF	0-4	0	0	0
5T.Story, SS	1-4	0	0	0
6W.Abreu, LF	0-3	0	0	0
7E.Valdez, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
8B.Dalbec, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
9C.Wong, C	1-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K
RD.Kremer, P	88	5.1	8
LD.Hall, P	23	1.2	1
RY.Cano, P	12	0.2	1
LC.Perez, P	4	0.1	0
RT.Wells, P	9	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1A.Hays, LF	0-4	0	0	0
2A.Rutschman, DH	1-3	0	0	0
3A.Santander, RF	1-4	1	1	1
3C.Mullins, CF	0-0	0	0	0
4R.Mountcastle, 1B	0-1	0	0	0
4R.O'Hearn, PH	0-0	0	0	0
4R.O'Hearn, 1B	0-0	0	0	0
5A. Hicks, CF	0-3	0	0	0
5A. Hicks, RF	0-3	0	0	0
6G.Henderson, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
6G.Henderson, SS	0-3	0	0	0
7J.Westburg, 2B	0-2	0	0	0
7A.Frazier, PH	0-0	1	0	0
7A.Frazier, 2B	0-0	1	0	0
8J.McCann, C	0-3	0	0	0
9J.Mateo, SS	1-2	0	0	0
9H.Kjerstad, PH	1-1	0	0	1
9R.Urias, 3B	0-0	0	0	0