Red Sox vs. Twins Odds & Betting Predictions - June 19, 2023

Red Sox at Twins

11:40 pm • BSN

Boston Red Sox

0-0

9 - 3

Minnesota Twins

0-0

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 0-0	+1.5-177	o7.5-110	+115
Twins 0-0	-1.5+146	u7.5-110	-140

Monday 11:40 p.m.

June 19, 2023

Target FieldMinneapolis

P.Lopez u6.5 Ks-140

1.4u

Projecting this closer to -180

MIN -140

1.4u

A.Duvall o0.5 Hits-130

C.Correa o1.5 Total Bases+124

$40.00

MIN -131

$65.50

MIN -134

0.5u

MIN -125

1.25u

Fading teams off Sunday Night Baseball continues to be profitable. Pablo Lopez also a positive regression candidate (3.17 xERA, 3.52 xFIP vs. 4.27 actual). Boston also off an emotional DH & sweep of NYY

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The Twins are just 3-8 (.273) when tied entering the 7th inning this season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Jarren Duran is batting .600 on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- third best among hitters with at least 105 total PA's-- 98th Percentile. Pablo Lopez has a strike rate of 72% on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- highest among qualified SPs-- 100th Percentile.

Byron Buxton has struck out in 31% of PA's this season -- tied for eighth highest in MLB-- fifth Percentile. James Paxton has a strikeout rate of 33% this season -- fourth highest among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP-- 98th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (272/752) against right-handed batters this season -- highest among in MLB; League Avg: 14% -- 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .033 (1-for-30) against James Paxton with two-strikes -- 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .164 -- 97th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has a first-pitch strike rate of 72% (247/343) this season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% -- 100th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Twins are 36-45 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Twins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 43 of Twins' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	69-93	33-48	36-45	46-66	22-26
Red Sox	75-87	32-49	43-38	30-49	44-37

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Twins	83-73-6	43-33-5	40-40-1	63-43-6	18-30
Red Sox	79-75-8	37-40-4	42-35-4	37-40-2	41-34-6

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Twins	82-80	43-38	39-42	63-49	18-30
Red Sox	81-81	38-43	43-38	42-37	38-43

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 18th	DET	L 4-6	-1.5 L	O 7.5	DET -190
Jun 17th	DET	W 2-0	-1.5 W	U 9	MIN -190
Jun 17th	DET	L 1-7	-1.5 L	U 8	DET -255
Jun 15th	DET	L 4-8	-1.5 L	O 7.5	DET -217
Jun 14th	MIL	W 4-2	-1.5 W	U 8.5	MIN -159

Lucas Giolito
P
Giolito is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Garrett Whitlock
P
Whitlock is out with oblique
Out
David Hamilton
IF
Hamilton is out with finger
Out

Jose Miranda
IF
Jose Miranda (back) has been scratched Thursday.
Out
Trevor Larnach
OF
Larnach is out with hamstring
Out
Joe Ryan
P
Ryan is out with triceps
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Paxton, P	91	6.1	7	3
RJ.Winckowski, P	18	0.2	1	0
RJ. Garza, P	37	2	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.Duran, LF	3-3	0	0	2
1R.Refsnyder, PH	0-1	1	0	0
1R.Refsnyder, LF	0-1	1	0	0
2A.Verdugo, RF	2-4	0	0	4
3R.Devers, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
4A.Duvall, CF	0-3	0	0	1
5M.Yoshida, DH	0-5	0	0	0
6C. Arroyo, 2B	0-4	1	0	0
7T.Casas, 1B	2-5	2	1	2
8C.Wong, C	1-4	2	0	0
9P.Reyes, SS	2-3	3	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RP.Lopez, P	104	5.2	9	4
LJ. Moran, P	13	0.1	0	1
RJ. De León, P	25	1.1	0	3
RE.Pagan, P	17	0.2	0	0
RG.Jax, P	10	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1D.Solano, 1B	1-5	0	0	0
2E.Julien, 2B	0-4	0	0	0
3B.Buxton, DH	0-3	0	0	0
4C.Correa, SS	1-4	0	0	0
5A.Kirilloff, RF	0-4	0	0	0
6W.Castro, CF	2-4	1	0	0
7K.Farmer, 3B	1-2	1	0	0
8J.Gallo, LF	1-4	0	0	0
9C.Vazquez, C	1-3	1	1	3