Reds vs. Mets Odds & Betting Predictions - September 15, 2023

Reds at Mets

11:10 pm • SNY

Cincinnati Reds

0-0

5 - 3

New York Mets

7-6

pitcher		team	era	w-l
D.Peterson			5.03	3-8
H.Greene			4.82	4-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Reds 0-0	-1.5+161	o8-105	-105
Mets 7-6	+1.5-192	u8-110	-115

Friday 11:10 p.m.

September 15, 2023

Citi FieldFlushing, Queens

CIN +100

0.5u

Bet to -104

Over 7.5-110

0.5u

Bet to -113

H. Greene u16.5 Outs-125

1.25u

Greene is under in 10/18 this season, incl 5/6 on 4 days rest. Mets have been plucky - 125 wRC+ over the L14 days vs righties, and 142 wRC+ vs righties at home over the L30 days. Nimmo, McNeil, Alonso and Lindor have had varying levels of success vs Greene (9/20 with 3 HR collectively).

CIN -106 (F5)

0.5u

Bet to -111

Featured Insight
Mets have struck out just 21% over the last two weeks -- eighth-lowest in MLB. Reds have a strikeout rate of just 22% over the last two weeks -- tied for eighth-lowest in MLB.

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Featured Insight
Reds Left Handed Hitters have struck out 23% against RHP since last season -- 10th-highest in MLB. Mets have a strikeout rate of 25% vs left-handed batters since last season -- tied for fourth-highest in MLB.

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MLB NRFI Model Picks For Friday
Billy Ward•
Sep 15, 2023 UTC

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The Reds are just 22-9 (.710) when they've had 5 or more XBH this season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .794.

30% of Brandon Nimmo strikeouts are looking since last season -- 13th highest in MLB-- 89th Percentile. 33% of Sam Moll strikeouts are looking since last season -- 13th highest among qualified RPs-- 93rd Percentile.

Hunter Greene has struck out 35% (65/186) of left-handed batters he faced this season -- 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 22% -- 99th Percentile.

Hunter Greene has averaged 98.7 MPH on fastballs since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 -- 100th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Mets are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
Mets are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Mets' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 42 of Mets' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	86-76	44-37	42-39	52-45	33-30
Reds	87-75	40-41	47-34	33-37	54-38

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Mets	81-76-5	42-39	39-37-5	46-46-5	34-29
Reds	73-81-8	35-40-6	38-41-2	38-29-3	35-52-5

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Mets	89-73	46-35	43-38	60-37	28-35
Reds	77-85	39-42	38-43	36-34	41-51

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 14th	ARI	W 11-1	+1.5 W	O 7	NYM -115
Sep 13th	ARI	W 7-1	+1.5 W	U 8	NYM +134
Sep 12th	ARI	W 7-4	+1.5 W	O 9.5	NYM -120
Sep 11th	ARI	L 3-4	-1.5 L	U 8.5	ARI -130
Sep 10th	@MIN	W 2-0	+1.5 W	U 9	NYM +150

Paul Blackburn
P
Blackburn is out with hand
Out
Ronny Mauricio
IF
Mauricio is out with knee
Out
Christian Scott
P
Scott is out with elbow
Out

Jeimer Candelario
IF
Candelario is out with toe
Out
Stuart Fairchild
OF
Fairchild is out with thumb
Out
Matt McLain
IF
McLain is out with shoulder
Out
Brandon Williamson
P
Williamson is out with elbow
Out
Graham Ashcraft
P
Ashcraft is out with elbow
Out
Andrew Abbott
P
Abbott is out with shoulder
Out
Christian Encarnacion-Strand
IF
Encarnacion-Strand is out with hand
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RH.Greene, P	98	5.2	6	3
RL.Sims, P	16	0.1	0	0
RI.Gibaut, P	27	1.1	1	0
RA.Diaz, P	22	1.2	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1J.India, 2B	1-5	1	1	2
2N.Senzel, 3B	1-5	1	0	0
3S.Steer, 1B	1-3	1	1	2
4H.Renfroe, RF	1-4	0	0	0
5T.Stephenson, DH	1-4	0	0	0
6N.Marte, SS	3-4	1	0	0
7T.Friedl, LF	0-3	0	0	0
8H.Bader, CF	0-4	0	0	0
9L.Maile, C	0-3	1	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LD.Peterson, P	95	5.2	10	2
RG.Hartwig, P	34	1.2	3	2
RD.Smith, P	15	0.2	0	0
RP.Bickford, P	8	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Nimmo, LF	1-3	0	0	0
2F.Lindor, SS	0-4	1	0	0
3D.Stewart, RF	2-4	1	0	0
4P.Alonso, 1B	1-4	1	1	3
5J.McNeil, 2B	1-4	0	0	0
6R.Mauricio, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
7R.Ortega, CF	0-2	0	0	0
8M.Vientos, DH	0-4	0	0	0
9O.Narvaez, C	0-3	0	0	0