Reds vs. Royals Odds & Betting Predictions - June 15, 2023

See my Lynch K prop write up to see why I like his K upside. He’s been unlucky in a lot of key areas so far and think it’s a good time to buy low. Lively has been fairly lucky in key stats that will likely regress going forward. I would bet KC up to -115

Lynch - 17/22 lefty starters under this line vs CIN, who have been a top 10 offense vs lefties over the L30 days (.821 OPS and 118 wRC+). They also fit the metric of being a patient team (3.95 pitches per PA - 9th highest, and the third lowest chase rate in baseball). Lynch is under in 2/3 this season. Mainly a two pitch pitcher vs righties (Reds starting 9) - and he’s someone who has struggled the third time through the order.

I'm not sure how sustainable it is, but Lively has been crushing in the strikeout department as a starter. He has had at least five strikeouts in all five starts, boasting a strikeout rate of 27.3% in that time. His swinging-strike rate hints at regression, but he's facing a Royals roster with a 25.7% strikeout rate against righties this year. He may come back to earth, but it's not necessarily in this matchup. This could wind up looking foolish, but I do think we should have interest in the over on Lively until he regresses or until the market adjusts up more.