Reds vs. Royals Odds & Betting Predictions - June 15, 2023

Reds at Royals

12:10 am • BSKC

Cincinnati Reds

3-3

7 - 4

Kansas City Royals

3-3

pitcher		team	era	w-l
D.Lynch			4.64	3-4
B.Lively			5.38	4-7

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Reds 3-3	N/A	N/A	N/A
Royals 3-3	N/A	N/A	N/A

Thursday 12:10 a.m.

June 15, 2023

Kauffman StadiumKansas City

KC -105

1.05u

See my Lynch K prop write up to see why I like his K upside. He’s been unlucky in a lot of key areas so far and think it’s a good time to buy low. Lively has been fairly lucky in key stats that will likely regress going forward. I would bet KC up to -115

D.Lynch o4.5 Ks-140

1.4u

His expected K/9 is 10.5 based on his underlying metrics. He uses a filthy change/slider combo on 50% of his pitches and is someone I want to invest in right now. The Reds will be sending 9 RHB against him, but Lynch’s K% is 4% higher against RHB in his career. Projecting this closer to -180

CIN -113

Under 9.5-110

1.1u

E.De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases+110

$1.00

B.Lively o4.5 Ks-105

The Reds are just 19-45 (.297) after a road loss since last season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .450.

The Reds are just 9-13 (.409) after a loss as favorites since last season -- 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .592.

The Royals are just 18-49 (.269) this season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Royals are just 7-6 (.538) when they've had 5 or more XBH this season -- lowest in MLB; League Avg: .783.

Michael Massey has an OPS of just .597 this season -- fifth worst in MLB-- second Percentile. Alexis Diaz has allowed an OPS of just .393 (105 PAs) this season -- best among qualified RPs-- 100th Percentile.

MJ Melendez has struck out in 30% of PA's this season -- 12th highest in MLB-- sixth Percentile. Alexis Diaz has a strikeout rate of 47% this season -- second highest among qualified RPs-- 99th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Royals are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Royals are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Royals are 1-2 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Royals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Royals' 3 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Royals	3-3	2-1	1-2	1-1	2-2
Reds	3-3	3-3	N/A	1-0	2-3

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Royals	1-5	1-2	0-3	0-2	1-3
Reds	3-3	3-3	N/A	0-1	3-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Royals	3-3	2-1	1-2	1-1	2-2
Reds	3-3	3-3	N/A	1-0	2-3

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jun 14th	CIN	L 4-5	-	-	-
Jun 13th	CIN	L 4-5	-	-	-
Jun 11th	@BAL	L 3-11	-	-	-
Jun 10th	@BAL	L 1-6	-	-	-
Jun 9th	@BAL	L 2-3	-	-	-

Michael Massey
2B
Massey is out with calf
Out

Nick Lodolo
SP
Lodolo is out with finger
Out
Hunter Greene
SP
Greene is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Lively, P	95	5.2	4	2
LA.Young, P	18	1	0	1
RB.Farmer, P	7	0.1	0	0
RF.Cruz, P	20	1	1	0
RD.Duarte, P	22	0.1	0	1
RA.Diaz, P	10	0.2	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Newman, 3B	0-3	1	0	0
2M.McLain, 2B	2-4	2	1	3
3J.India, DH	2-4	1	1	2
4E.De La Cruz, SS	0-4	0	0	0
5S.Steer, 1B	1-4	1	1	1
6T.Stephenson, C	0-4	0	0	0
7S.Fairchild, LF	1-3	1	1	1
8T. Hopkins, RF	1-4	1	0	0
9J.Barrero, CF	0-3	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LD.Lynch, P	102	7	3	7
RN. Wittgren, P	12	1	2	0
RJ.Cuas, P	13	1	3	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1N.Pratto, 1B	1-5	1	0
2S.Perez, DH	0-1	0	0
2M.Garcia, PR	2-3	1	0
2M.Garcia, DH	2-3	1	0
3M.Melendez, RF	2-5	0	1
4B.Witt, SS	3-5	1	1
5M.Massey, 2B	0-3	0	0
6E.Olivares, LF	4-5	1	0
7N.Lopez, 3B	0-4	0	0
8F.Fermin, C	1-5	0	0
9D.Blanco, CF	2-5	0	1