Dodgers vs Padres Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -115 | 8 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +145 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -105 | 8 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -175 |
We've had a few Sunday Night Baseball games already this season, but none of the previous matchups hold a candle to this week's edition.
The Dodgers and Padres are set to face off in sunny San Diego, with recent Cy Young vote getters Julio Urias and Joe Musgrove on the mound.
Dodgers vs. Padres odds have Los Angeles as a slight favorite with two established starters on the mound.
What a treat. Let's bet it. Read on for a game preview and a Dodgers vs. Padres pick.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are so annoying.
They're going through roster turnover hell. Gavin Lux's injury only magnified the departures of Trea Turner, Corey Seager, Justin Turner and others. None of the relievers are healthy and Jason Heyward is getting consistent starts in the outfield.
Yet we find ourselves in a familiar place, with the Dodgers atop the division.
The lineup is raking. The Dodgers are top-five in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and, ultimately, xwOBA. Considering the depth, I thought the outfield production would dive, but the Dodgers' outfield is sixth in wRC+, mostly thanks to rookie James Outman's breakout.
I guess it's nice when Max Muncy is baseball's home run leader (12) and cooking up a 1.009 OPS. I'm hesitant to say his production is sustainable when his BABIP (.389) and strikeout rate (28.1%) are sky-high, but he's also walking plenty with an immaculate batted-ball profile.
Also, Muncy is clutch.
GRAND SLAM. WALK-OFF. MAX MUNCY. pic.twitter.com/50ekZiteYI
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) May 3, 2023
Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts haven't been studs, but they'll always produce at an above-average rate.
I guess I'm worried about the bullpen. But here's the thing, Daniel Hudson, Blake Treinen, Alex Reyes and JP Feyereisen have combined for zero innings this season, and not even the Dodgers have the depth to overcome that.
The Dodgers are definitely a top-half defensive team, although they don't rank better than 10th in either Outs Above Average or Defensive Runs Saved.
Clayton Kershaw is a madman and carrying this rotation. I hope he continues this production level because the Dodgers' rotational depth isn't anything to write home about.
Today's starter is a slight mystery to me.
Starting pitcher: Julio Urias (LHP)
Urias could've been the Cy Young Award winner last season, but is now producing like a middle-rotation guy.
He's a confounding pitcher to understand. He'll never blow anybody away with stuff, but spins the ball like crazy, generating weak contact and lazy fly balls.
Well, he did last year. Urias' April numbers were highly questionable.
His fly-ball rate is down 6% and hitters are teeing off on his fastball (.531 xSLG, 49% hard-hit rate). He's introduced an effective cutter, but hasn't thrown it enough to compensate. Overall, his numbers are considerably worse than last year (3.86 ERA, 3.39 xERA).
Historically, Urias has forced those lazy fly balls with some of baseball's best fastball spin rates. However, that's not happening right now:
The Stuff+ rate on his fastball is down from 106 to 88, which spells trouble.
Urias is still a quality southpaw starter, but he's not producing ace-like results. I'm waiting to see if he turns it around.
San Diego Padres
Stars litter San Diego's roster. Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Yu Darvish and even Nelson Cruz.
But do you know who the current bWAR leader is in the clubhouse?
It's Ha Seong-Kim.
That's not entirely fair as Bogaerts' fWAR and peripherals are considerably higher, but it does bring about my next point.
The Padres' superstars haven't been producing at a superstar level.
Soto looks unsettled at the plate. He can't stop swinging at bad pitches and his strikeout rate is up over 10% from last year. Additionally, his O-Contact rate is down over 20%.
Also, Machado's batted-ball profile is a mess.
Tatis has been fine in his return, but has 13 strikeouts to three walks.
I don't want to drag on the Padres too much as they're 9-4 over their past 13 games and boast the fourth-best wRC+ over the past two weeks. However, I can't help but feel like there's some untapped potential on this 18-15, third-place team.
I've lost some money fading the Padres recently, so maybe I need to up them in my power ratings. But I'm waiting to see more, and I think this Sunday-Night, nationally-televised game is the one for them to prove it to me.
Starting pitcher: Joe Musgrove (RHP)
Do you want to talk about underperforming superstars? How about Joe Musgrove allowing 13 runs in his first 8 1/3 innings after signing a $100 million contract?
Eh. Honestly, Musgrove is the least of my worries.
His xERA is below 4.00, and there's nothing in his metrics that sounds alarm bells. His Stuff+ is actually up and his ground-ball rate is 50%.
So, what gives?
Well, a .375 BABIP, a 53.2% strand rate and an unfair start in Mexico City where he allowed three home runs at 7,000 feet of altitude, which juiced his HR/FB rate to 44.4%.
Musgrove will be fine if he stays true to his five-pitch arsenal. Projections have him as a two-win, mid-3.00s ERA pitcher, but I think that's underselling him.
Dodgers vs. Padres Betting Pick
The Dodgers have been spanking right-handed pitching. They boast the second-best wRC+ against right handers (124) and that number has improved over the past week (152).
Meanwhile, the Padres have been spanking left-handed pitching. San Diego boasts a 118 wRC+ against southpaws, including an insane 251 wRC+ over the past week (including the Mexico City Games). The lineup is underperforming, but Tatis, Bogaerts and Soto all show pop in their numbers.
The left-handed Urias and right-handed Musgrove are pitchers we should feel good about, but I'm not sold on either. If the public looks at this relatively elite starting pitching matchup and bets the under, I'm happy to go contrarian and bet the over.
Meanwhile, neither defense has been great and I power rate both bullpens somewhat low. Specifically, the Dodgers' pen, which is hurt and has looked shaky in late-game situations.
Ultimately, I'll take a hard-hitting over, especially at the relatively lower total of 8 (-105).
The Action Network's own Collin Wilson tells me he projects this total at 9.5, so I feel very comfortable with the value we're getting.
I'm betting on a high-scoring Sunday Night Baseball affair in San Diego, and I'd recommend you do the same.
Pick: Over 8 | Play to 8.5 |
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