Astros vs. Rays Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+154 | 7.5 -114 / -106 | +1.5 -142 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -184 | 7.5 -114 / -106 | -1.5 +118 |
The Tampa Bay Rays host the Houston Astros in an American League matchup on Tuesday night in Tropicana Field. Right-hander Drew Rasmussen will be on the mound for Tampa Bay against Houston right-hander Luis Garcia.
Sean Koerner, Action Network's director of analytics, breaks down his favorite prop from the slate below. Be sure to check out our MLB props page for full projections for a variety of player props across the board.
Drew Rasmussen Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120, BetMGM)
Drew Rasmussen has cleared 5.5 strikeouts in three of his four starts this season and is sporting a K/9 of 10.48 on the season. However, based on my model he only has an expected K/9 of 7.83, so has overperformed thus far.
The most predictive metric for strikeouts is swinging strike rate, and Rasmussen's is only 11.2%, meaning we should expect his K/9 to take a bit of a hit moving forward.
Rasmussen is throwing his sinker a bit more this season (9% compared to 4%) and his sweeper less frequently (11% compared to 23%), which is another underlying reason we should expect strikeout regression.
One of the reasons for the high K rate so far is that his swing rate on pitches inside the strike zone is 63.5%, when the league average is 69%. The Astros swing at pitches in the zone at the sixth-highest rate, so it's going to be a tougher matchup for Rasmussen than he's seen so far this season in terms of racking up strikouts.
In terms of the umpiring, Brock Ballou will be behind the plate. He's a new umpire with only nine games behind the plate since the start of last season. He tends to not call strikes on the low outside corner, which happens to be where Rasmussen's cutter/sweeper typically ends up.
The Astros' 6-9 hitters will be Rasmussen's most likely strikeout victims, but I have him projected to get pulled — on average — right around the 4-5 hitter his third time through the order, so it's unlikely he faces those hitters more than twice.
I'm projecting this line closer to -175, so there's plenty of value on the under at -120 currently being offered at BetMGM.
