The Kansas City Royals (80-66) and New YorkYankees (83-62) conclude their three-game series on Wednesday night at Yankee Stadium. Royals-Yankees first pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Bally Sports Kansas City, Amazon Prime and MLB Network.
The Yankees enter Wednesday with a half-game lead over the Baltimore Orioles (83-63) for first place in the AL East, so every game from here on out is a crucial one.
The pitching matchup on Wednesday is an ideal one with Yankees rookie stud Luis Gil taking on the Royals' diamond-in-the-rough, Cole Ragans. Let's get into the latest MLB odds, and my Royals vs Yankees prediction for Wednesday, September 11.
Royals at Yankees Predictions
- Royals-Yankees picks: Over 8 (-105)
My Royals vs Yankees best bet and prediction is on Over 8, where I see value at -105. The best line is available at bet365, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees Odds
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+130 | 8 +100o / -120u | +1.5 -160 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-155 | 8 +100o / -120u | -1.5 +135 |
- Royals-Yankees Moneyline: Royals +130 | Yankees -155
- Royals-Yankees Over/Under: 8 total runs (+100o / -120u)
- Royals-Yankees Spread: Royals +1.5 (-160) | Yankees -1.5 (+135)
Probable Starting Pitchers for Royals-Yankees
| LHP Cole Ragans (KCR) | Stat | RHP Luis Gil (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-9 | W-L | 13-6 |
| 4.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.5 |
| 3.33 / 3.31 | ERA /xERA | 3.24 / 3.54 |
| 2.94 / 3.41 | FIP / xFIP | 3.78 / 4.26 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 1.16 |
| 21.3% | K-BB% | 15.2% |
| 39.8% | GB% | 37.7% |
| 109 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 100 | Location+ | 100 |
Royals at Yankees Preview & Prediction
Royals Betting Preview: Cole Ragans in Fine Form
Of all their starters, Ragans gives the Royals their best chance to win any game.
It's more than a fair argument that Seth Lugo deserves the title this season; he does have more wins. So why do I feel confident saying that the Royals are best behind Ragans? It's because Ragans is better at the pitch level.
The FIP/xFIP on Ragans at 2.94/3.41 and his 109 Stuff+ on the season are highly predictive measurements that indicate his future success. His secret sauce is the fastball-changeup combo.
His four-seam gets swinging strikes outside the zone, generates an above-average ground ball rate when contact is made, and at 95.5 mph with strong horizontal and vertical movement, rates in the 89th percentile of all pitches in baseball per PLV (Pitch Level Value). The changeup, in combination, is deadly. Ragans has generated a swinging strike on 27.8% of pitches when throwing it (99th percentile). He's a formidable matchup for any hitter.
The Royals have won seven of Ragans' past ten starts, including road starts at Detroit, Cleveland, Minnesota and Boston. He struggled in a road start against Houston for fairness and a complete picture. Nonetheless, he's been great recently. The strikeouts are up, the velocity looks good, and he's doing it against good teams away from home. He's in trustworthy form.
Add in the elite combination of Salvador Perez and AL MVP candidate Bobby Witt Jr., and you have a core that gives you a chance to compete — especially when Ragans is on the mound.
Yankees Betting Preview: Aaron Judge is Ice Cold
Gil returned from injury impressively last week, blanking the Cubs in Chicago for six innings of one-hit ball. He walked two and struck out seven on 89 pitches in his first start since August 2oth. It was his best result by ideal contact allowed since a similar start back in June against Minnesota.
Gil had been struggling before the injury. The Yankees had lost seven of the 10 previous appearances he had made, and Gil had allowed three or more runs in six of the 10 for a 5.84 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in that span.
The Yankees have also dealt with a struggling star in Aaron Judge. It's hard to say that someone who put up MVP season numbers with a month left could be struggling, but he has been. He's gone without a home run in 13 straight games, his longest streak in years.
Still, past results don't directly correlate to future results, and you can bet that sportsbooks aren't shifting their odds on the slugger to hit one out of the park due to a little slump. They might shift them because Ragans is very effective, but that's not the point. The Yankees lineup is still very potent.
New York consistently scores at home, and, for whatever reason, its pitching seems to struggle more there. It could be that hitters get a solid boost playing at Yankee Stadium. The total is a strong 41-28-1 O/U in New York this season.
Royals vs Yankees Prediction & Betting Analysis
The money line on this game moved initially towards Kansas City to -143 after an open of -155. There has been a buyback towards the open since, and the line is at -148. Minor, undecided movement on pitchers and lineups that everyone has plenty of data on makes sense. The opener is probably spot on today, especially with the decently rested bullpens.
The total did jump to 8.5 early in the night but has been moved to 8. This is where I think we can get some value. These are two terrific lineups, and even against solid pitchers, there's a chance they can still do enough damage to get us over the line or even to a 4-4 promised victory with extra innings.
Luis Gil's one good start off of prolonged rest needs to be taken with some context of his performance leading into his injury list stint. He can be volatile. Cole Ragans, as great as he is, could give up a run or two to a powerful Yankees lineup, and nothing would be more poetic than Judge to break out of his home run slump today.
Pick: Over 8 (-105, bet365) | Play to 8 (-120)
Moneyline
The Yankees are fighting for the top spot in the AL and are tied with the Guardians for the best record in baseball. Every game is important as they look to lock down home-field advantage in the playoffs. The Royals are also fighting with the Guardians, they're 3.5 games back for the division and technically the best record in baseball, as well. Thus, this is a big game, it's a rubber game after New York lit up Kansas City for 10 runs in the opener and the Royals shut out the Yankees yesterday.
The Yankees have done well against the Royals this season and have won 65 of 118 games when priced as the favorite. Even so, my lean is with the underdog, particularly in the first five innings, where you can isolate Ragans' strong form against the questionable Luis Gil. The Yankees may very well be able to win the game late against the Kansas City bullpen.
Run Line (Spread)
Given that there are good pitchers on the mound for both sides, the value on this game is likely on either to have a strong enough game to create a definitive win. The Royals are 42-34 on the run line as underdogs, but they won 34 of those games outright.
I think that scenario continues to hold true today. The underdog value isn't the run line, which means the favorite value most likely is. So, if you think the Yankees do well, it's likely behind the sluggers' slugging and Luis Gil staying hot. They would most likely win by multiple runs in that scenario, and you have real reason to take -1.5 on New York for a +140 or better line rather than paying the -140 or so price on the money line.
Over/Under
My bet is on the over. I just think the lineups are too good, and there's a very good chance that we could push at worst. Gil's numbers might look great coming off a stellar return, but the velocity on the fastball was down, and the break on both his fastball and changeup are down from his best performances. The Royals could make anyone pay for a less-than-stellar day on the mound.
The other side of this matchup is still one of the best lineups in baseball. Aaron Judge's struggles shouldn't be a discount, and if it is, we will take it. Cole Ragans is great, but the Yankees could dispatch him before the sixth inning ends—as his walk rate and general efficiency have been his Achilles heel all season—and then pounce on a sub-par KC bullpen.
Royals-Yankees Betting Trends
- 82% of the bets and 89% of the money are on the Yankees moneyline.
- 89% of the bets and 90% of the money are on the over.
- 91% of the bets and 94% of the money are on the Yankees to cover the run line.
Royals Betting Trends
- The Royals are 42-34 ATS as an underdog this year.
- Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
- Royals are 37-34 in their road games against the spread.
Yankees Betting Trends
- The Yankees are 80-61-4 to the Over this season.
- Yankees games are 6-4 to the Over in the past 10 games.
