PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Marcus Stroman Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (+120)
Mariners vs. Yankees | 7:05 p.m. ET
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As we embark on a new week, we have a few new baseball series to navigate, including the Mariners' trip to the Bronx to face the Yankees.
I love the under on Marcus Stroman's pitching outs line.
Stroman has stayed under 16.5 outs in five of his nine starts this year. His counting stats are respectable — 3-2 with a 3.33 ERA. However, his advanced metrics indicate he’s due for regression — 4.75 expected ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 11.8% walk rate.
As the high walk rate indicates, Stroman has struggled with command. His 42.5% zone rate is the lowest among 82 qualified pitchers (per FanGraphs). He also doesn't induce chases (43rd percentile, per Baseball Savant), all leading to a whopping 4.05 pitches per plate appearance this season.
The Mariners lead all teams in pitches seen per plate appearance at 4.05. They’ve also registered the fifth-lowest chase rate (26.2%). Even though Seattle has been an average offense of late, with a 100 wRC+ versus righties over the last two weeks, they can be relied on to work Stroman’s pitch count.
Stroman has also struggled in the third time through the batting order, allowing a whopping .872 OPS. The Yankees bullpen is in good shape, which could lead Aaron Boone to a quicker hook if Stroman gets in trouble.
This is my favorite bet on the board today. You can get a +120 price at bet365, but I’d play this line down to -115.
