PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Mets vs Phillies Picks
Despite pitching on a staff that includes Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez has emerged as the early-season ace for the MLB-leading Phillies this season.
Suarez is 7-0 and has won each of his last seven starts with a pristine 1.50 ERA over his eight outings this season.
The advanced stats back up Suarez’s scorching stretch — he has a 2.20 xERA, with a hard-hit rate and ground-ball rate in the 96th and 95th percentiles, respectively.
The southpaw has seen plenty of success against the Mets in his career. New York’s top four hitters — Pete Alonso, Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo — are a combined 10-for-52 off Suarez with one extra-base hit.
In general, the Mets rank dead last in OPS (.540) and wRC+ (61) over the last month of the season against left-handed pitching, per FanGraphs.
And specifically against ground-ball pitchers, the Mets’ .612 OPS is well below the league average, according to Baseball Reference.
On the flip side, Joey Lucchesi makes his first start for the Mets this season. A left-hander as well, he’ll have to contend with a hot Phillies lineup that owns a 122 wRC+ and .779 OPS against lefties over the last 30 days.
And thanks to a complete game from Nola yesterday, the Phillies' high-leverage relievers should all be available tonight.
I have Suarez notching his eighth win in a row tonight, and I’d play this line down to +100.
