The Cincinnati Reds host the Milwaukee Brewers on June 3, 2025. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSOH.
Read our Brewers vs Reds prediction and MLB pick below.
My Brewers vs Reds Prediction
- Brewers vs Reds Picks: Reds ML (-125, BetMGM)
My Brewers vs Reds best bet is on Cincinnati ML. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Reds Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 8 -118o / -102u | +105 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 8 -118o / -102u | -125 |
Brewers vs Reds Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Freddy Peralta | Stat | RHP Hunter Greene (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | W-L | 4-3 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 2.77 / 3.57 | ERA / xERA | 2.63 / 2.75 |
| 3.99 / 4.13 | FIP / xFIP | 3.28 / 3.24 |
| 1.17 | WHIP | 0.91 |
| 14.7% | K-BB% | 25.7% |
| 38.5% | GB% | 28.4% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 126 |
| 100 | Location+ | 99 |
Tanner McGrath’s Brewers vs Reds Preview
One of Evan Abrams’ Bet Labs systems popped for this game: Market Movers in Conference Clashes.
This system tracks modest favorites where the market shifts slightly toward them, often due to subtle edges not captured by public models. The strategy capitalizes on light market momentum in tight competitive spots, where fundamental metrics signal a long-term edge.
The system has generated a 5% ROI lifetime and is 34-23 this season, so I’m willing to ride the trends and back the Reds on Tuesday.
Additionally, Sean Zerillo bet the Reds ML at -115, showing value to -120 given he projects the Reds as -130 favorites.
I’m going to buy the Reds a bit higher, for a few reasons.
While Freddy Peralta is an elite starting pitcher, Hunter Greene has ascended into borderline Cy Young territory.
Peralta’s 2.77 ERA is backed up by a 3.57 xERA and 4.13 xFIP behind a 14.7% strikeout minus walk rate — he’s gotten some BABIP (.249) and strand (85.5%) luck. Plus, the advanced pitching models aren’t super high on him (101 Stuff+, 100 Location+).
Conversely, Greene’s 2.63 ERA is backed up by a 2.75 xERA and 3.24 xFIP behind an insane 25.7% strikeout minus walk rate. He ranks among the league’s best pitchers by Stuff+ (126), signifying his 30.8% strikeout rate is no fool’s gold.
I’m giving the pitching advantage to Cincinnati, and I think Peralta could see some regression on a warm day at the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark.
The Brewers’ bats are hotter, but on the season, Cincinnati’s offense grades out slightly better against right-handed pitching (99 wRC+) than Milwaukee’s (95 wRC+).
I don’t see a big defensive or bullpen advantage for either team. However, Cincinnati’s relievers are far better rested, as their top three high-leverage guys haven’t pitched in three days, while the Brewers have deployed three of their top four highest-leverage guys in back-to-back days (Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Rob Zastryzny).
The Reds have lost three straight, but Greene is their stopper, and I expect them to bounce back in a favorable situational spot.
Pick: Reds ML (-125, BetMGM)
