Happy Friday everyone. We have a stacked night slate with every single team in play tonight. I'm here to give you as much information as possible when it comes to potential avenues for batting props for the upcoming slate.
There will be three parts of this article. The first is the historical matchups between the projected starting pitcher and opposing hitters. I'll also break down the game where we're expecting the biggest boost in home runs because of the weather before ending with a certain pitcher cough Tyler Anderson cough who is due for negative regression.
Let's dive into my MLB betting preview for Friday, July 12, featuring a trio of hitter props for today's slate.
MLB Betting Preview: Hitter Props for Friday, July 12
Notable Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups:
Here, I’m just going to provide you with a bunch of historical context regarding how opposing hitters have performed against the starting pitcher slated for Friday night. I personally believe previous at-bats don’t mean as much in the grand scheme — unless it’s a very large sample — but it’s always great to know heading into a slate:
Those with 30+ At-Bats vs. Starting Pitcher:
Paul Goldschmidt vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP): Goldschmidt has faced Hendricks a whopping 49 times in his career. He is hitting .286 and has no home runs across that span. BUT, nine of his 14 hits have gone for doubles (64%).
Jose Altuve vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP): Altuve has faced Heaney 43 times in his career and is hitting .326 with a pair of home runs and four doubles. He has struck out just five times.
Alex Bregman vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP): Like Altuve, Bregman has also dominated the southpaw. Across 38 at-bats, Bregman is hitting .342 with a home run, double and triple. Not as much power, though (.500 slugging).
Between 20-30 At-Bats vs. Starting Pitcher:
Cedric Mullins vs. Gerrit Cole (RHP): This may be a sneakier DFS play if you want to add a cheap option, but Mullins is arguably the best hitter against Cole for the Orioles. Across 27 at-bats, Mullins is hitting .333 with a home run and double.
Less Than 20 At-Bats vs. Starting Pitcher:
Ian Happ vs. Sonny Gray (RHP): Obviously this is less of a sample, but in 13 at-bats against Gray, Happ has hit .462 with an OPS of 1.346. Half his hits have gone for extra bases (1 HR).
Marcus Semien vs. Hunter Brown (RHP): In just 13 at-bats against Brown, Semien has a whopping .615 average. Just one of his hits have gone for extra bases.
Brandon Lowe vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP): In eight at-bats against Carrasco, Brandon Lowe has tattooed the right-hander. All four of his hits have gone for extra bases, two of which have left the park.
Highest Expected Home Run Boost Due to Weather
Using the WeatherEdge tool over at RotoGrinders, you can look at the weather conditions expected around game time and, based on historical data of similar conditions, predict how it’ll affect hitting conditions.
The game with the biggest home run increase comes out in New York, where the Mets take on the Rockies. The wind is expected to blow out to left center at 10 miles per hour in 82 degree temperature. Based on an extensive 103-game sample, this results in an +16.2% increase in home runs.
On the mound for Colorado is rookie right-hander Tanner Gordon. He made his debut on Sunday and allowed five runs across 6 1/3 innings. Most of those runs came in a blow-up second, though Gordon did allow two home runs in the 10-1 loss.
In the minor leagues, Gordon had a 2.41 HR/9 across 33.2 innings. All the major projection outlets like Steamer, THEBAT and ZiPS all pin Gordon in that 1.5-2 HR/9 range in the bigs. Gordon isn’t a high strikeout pitcher and often gives up lots of fly balls.
The best Met this season against right-handed pitching has been Brandon Nimmo (+480 to hit a HR, FanDuel). He also happens to be the hottest hitter in baseball right now — over the last 30 days, Nimmo is hitting .333 with a 1.111 OPS. He has nine home runs and 30 RBI over that span. His total bases prop sits at -105.
Other Mets that have seen right-handed pitching well include Francisco Alvarez (153 wRC+, .189 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (119 wRC+, .185 ISO). Though every single Met that’s expected to start — aside from Jeff McNeil — carries a wRC+ above league average. Nimmo and Pete Alonso each have 12 home runs against right-handed pitching, with Francisco Lindor one back at 11.
Opposite Gordon will be Sean Manaea. He has an issue keeping the ball on the ground — 20th percentile in GB% — and has struggled with his control. Manaea has been on fire of late, allowing just one run over his last three starts (18 IP). He does have more walks than hits allowed in that same span.
The Rockies aren’t anything special against left-handed pitching. Ryan McMahon has arguably been the best (134 wRC+, .193 ISO), but he also hasn’t hit a home run since June 22. I mentioned him as a possibility on Wednesday, but Brenton Doyle is swinging just as hot a bad as Nimmo. To just get a hit is (-154) at Caesars and a home run is (+675) at BetMGM. Over the last 30 days, Doyle is hitting .319 with a 1.012 OPS. Even int he last week, his average is above .400 with an OPS nearing 1.500.
One thing to note, Manaea does have reverse splits. Lefties hit .277 with an .809 OPS (just 65 at-bats) while right-handed hitters are batting just .205 with a .596 OPS (263 at-bats).
Bet Into Negative Regression?
Tyler Anderson (vs. SEA): Fresh off an eight-inning shutout where he allowed just three hits and struck out 10 Chicago Cubs, Anderson remains a clear sell high candidate. While he has been elite at limiting hard hits (33.5%), it’s no different than last season (32.3%) where his ERA finished nearly three runs higher than it is right now.
All expected metrics point toward negative regression for the southpaw. Anderson’s xERA (4.47) and xFIP (5.05) are at a minimum 1.5 runs higher than actual (2.81). He has posted an unsustainable 83.8% strand rate, over 10% higher than his career average. Oh, and Anderson’s BABIP? Career-best .229 — much lower than his career mean of .283.
Anderson does not strike out many batter (14th percentile) and he has given up the highest barrel rate since 2019. That, paired with plenty of fly balls — 44.2% — would suggest home run regression and more hits in general.
Mitch Garver (+390, FanDuel) has been the best Mariner against LHP this season (146 wRC+, .282 ISO). He is second on the team in home runs against southpaws behind all-or-nothing Cal Raleigh who, by the way, is on an absolute tear at the plate.
We also may very well finally be seeing the breakout of Julio Rodriguez (+420, FanDuel). His 118 wRC+ against left-handed pitching should only rise in the second half. Over the last 15 days, J-Rod is hitting .319 with an .885 OPS. His total bases prop is listed at plus-money.
