One of the most popular promotions in the sports betting community is back: MLB Dinger Tuesday from FanDuel.
The promotion allows a user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether the player you bet on homers, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25 for the game.
Many users have been limited by FanDuel this season and are only allowed to receive a maximum $25 back in free bets — essentially five free homers back for the day in free bets. Last season, there were higher limits, usually $50, on the return in free bets for players.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2023 was 2.20, you will receive an average of $12 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run "yes" prop.
If you aren't limited, you should play as many games as you’re comfortable with because the promo is still plus-EV for most of the board. If you are limited to the max return of $25, an average of two-to-three games will return your $25 maximum in free bets.
Note: It could take just one game to reach the $25 ceiling if there are five homers in that game.
Here are my three favorite MLB home run bets for Dinger Tuesday on May 21.
By virtue of it taking place in Cincinnati, the Padres-Reds game today is one of the highest projecting games for home runs. More home runs were hit in Cincinnati than any other park over the past three seasons, and it's the best home run park in baseball even when adjusting for team factors.
Unfortunately, there aren't many great prices on hitters from either team in this matchup. The two best-projecting candidates, Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado, aren't even +300, though our projections are still showing slight value on Tatis.
I'd rather take a slightly bigger swing here, since we're still somewhat being rewarded for home runs by the obvious hitters by virtue of the free bets awarded.
My favorite choice is De La Cruz. He's having something of a breakout year in 2024, with an .829 OPS through roughly a third of the season. His underlying numbers are excellent, with an increase in hard hit rate, barrel rate, and fly ball rate compared to his rookie campaign.
Most of his power comes from the left side, which is where he'll be hitting from today against Joe Musgrove. Musgrove could be rusty tonight as he returns from the 15-day IL, and he's already allowed 10 home runs in eight appearances this season.
The game at Wrigley between the Braves and Cubs stands out in a major way today, thanks to the absurd hitting weather. The current forecast is winds up to 25 mph out to left field, with temperature in the mid 80s.
That's driven the total up to 11 in this game, which is now juiced to the over and will probably close even higher.
We'll be specifically looking for right-handed hitters tonight, as the weather is a much bigger boost to their pull-side power than it is for lefties. I also prefer to target the Braves side, as Cubs' starter Javier Assad has a considerably higher flyball rate than the Braves' Charlie Morton. Fortunately, that leaves us no shortage of choices.
Our projections have Acuna as the likeliest player to homer in this one, narrowly edging out teammates Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson — both of whom have shorter odds on FanDuel.
For that reason, we'll take the semi-chalky Acuna, but you can't really go wrong with any of the power-hitting righties in this contest.
Kauffman stadium in Kansas City doesn't get enough love as a hitters park, despite being the third best stadium for offense over the past three seasons. The weather there is also getting overlooked today thanks to the Braves/Cubs game, but the conditions tonight typically boost home runs more than 20% per the Weather Edge Tool from our friends at RotoGrinders.
That makes this a sneaky game to target for some longer-odds picks, especially if the above two games take care of the $25 free bet limit between them. Unlike in Chicago, the wind here is blowing out to right field, making this a better spot for left handed hitting.
Royals' starter Alec Marsh has a flyball rate over 40% this season, well above the league average. His hard hit rate is also over league average. Despite that, he has just a 7.1% HR/FB ratio — meaning he's due for some regression.
At the same time, Tigers rookie Wenceel Perez has just three home runs, despite above average hard hit and barrel rate. The switch hitting Perez will be batting from the left side against Marsh, so the wind is blowing out to his pull side.
Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter are also left-handed sluggers with better than five-to-one odds, but I'll be taking the bigger swing on Perez.
