Our lone pick MLB NRFI pick on Thursday didn't work out, as the expected Carlos Rodon blow-up game took a few innings to get started. Fortunately, we have a much bigger slate on Friday with all 30 teams in action.
As such, I identified three values in my MLB NRFI & YRFI model for Brewers vs Cubs, Rangers vs Royals and Mets vs Rays.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Odds, Picks: Model Predictions (Friday, May 3)
Starting Pitchers: Joe Ross vs. Hayden Wesneski
We're taking a slight leap of faith with Joe Ross here.
He comes into the game with a 5.40 overall ERA, but that number drops to 3.48 his first time through the order. Additionally, his underlying metrics have been much better, with a 3.51 xERA this season.
Betting markets seem to be on the side of the pitchers here as well, with a 7.5-run total. That mark is likely impacted by the weather as well, with the Windy City providing double-digit winds blowing in from the outfield at Wrigley.
BetRivers (and other associated books with the same lines provider) are offering the same line as ESPN Bet, but I wouldn't go much past the current number.
Starting Pitchers: Jose Quintana vs. Aaron Civale
These are two of the better early-game pitchers in my model, and both come in with first-time-through-the-order ERAs of just over 2.00. They tend to struggle deeper into games, which explains the slightly higher game total.
That works out well for my process since the total keeps the price on the NRFI fairly cheap.
Starting Pitchers: Michael Lorenzen vs. Brady Singer
This line was as low as -105 this morning but unfortunately moved before I could bet it and get this article out. On the plus side, that means I'm on the sharper side of this one if money is coming in on the YRFI.
These are two of the more top-heavy lineups in the league right now, with the Royals getting the bulk of their production from Bobby Witt Jr. (155 wRC+ in 2024) and the Rangers featuring a murderer's row at the top of their order.
Coupled with two mediocre pitchers — Singer's xERA is nearly two runs higher than his 2.62 ERA — and we have a solid YRFI play.
This bet is widely available at -120 on most books, which is about as far as I would take it.
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