The Reds failing to convert second and third with no outs stopped it form being a massive day on yesterday, but we still went 2-1 with the loss coming on a half-unit bet. We have a chance to top 40 units of profit on the season with another winning day today, so let's officially cross that barrier tonight.
I've locked in three more MLB NRFI & YRFI model picks for Friday, July 12 — featuring bets for Athletics vs. Phillies, Guardians vs. Rays, and Mariners vs. Angels.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Friday, July 12
A's vs. Phillies
Starting Pitchers: Hogan Harris vs. Ranger Suarez
We've cashed Phillies YRFIs each of the last two days, with Philadelphia being the team to convert even when taking on the high-powered Dodgers.
We're (mostly) relying on them to get it done against tonight, as they take on the A's in a weekend series.
Oakland starter Hogan Harris has a 3.00 ERA as a starter through seven starts, but his xFIP and xERA are both over 5.00. His xFIP jumps another half run his first time through the order.
More importantly, he's a southpaw. The Phillies are a top-five offense against lefties, and their first four hitters all have a wRC+ of at least 128.
Oakland is also much better against lefties — and they are facing a lefty today in Suarez — which is why I'm targeting the full game YRFI here. Suarez is also due for some general regression, with a 2.58 ERA and 3.16 xERA. The A's chances aren't great, but it's enough to push the projection into the playable range at this price.
Guardians vs. Rays
Starting Pitchers: Taj Bradley vs. Carlos Carrasco
Rays starter Taj Bradley has some of the most extreme early game splits I've seen from a starter. He's solid overall with a 3.23 ERA and 3.32 xFIP. However, the first time through the order his numbers dip to 2.05 and 2.04, respectively.
He should get through the Guardians fairly easily, especially with Cleveland being a considerably worse average offense against right handed pitching.
The Rays are also much worse against righties, which is the saving grace for Carlos Carraso. Carrasco is struggling with an ERA over five — though most of his ERA predictors are about a run lower — but Tampa ranks 21st in wRC+ against righties.
The risk of Cleveland scoring is low enough that we're basically laying -115 on a specific-team NRFI, which is almost always a good, if scary, bet.
Mariners vs. Angels
Starting Pitchers: Bryan Woo vs. Tyler Anderson
These pitchers have a 2.09 ERA their first time through the order. Not each — that's the combined mark of Woo (0.45) and Anderson (1.64.).
Obviously those are somewhat unsustainable numbers, and both starters have higher ERA predictors. However, that's still an extremely strong sign in a game with an eight-run total that could fall even lower today.
Neither team has a hitter with a wRC+ over 110 in their first three projected hitters, and both teams are also on the wrong side of their platoon splits. Everything is pointing the same direction here, making it well worth paying the juice.
