Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can find expert projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Friday, July 12.
MLB Predictions Friday | Expert Bets & Previews (July 12)
Guardians vs Rays
Carlos Carrasco (RHP, CLE) vs Taj Bradley (RHP, TB)
This will be a short handicap.
We can't keep doing this with Carlos Carrasco. He's a mess, and his continually decreasing velocity has led to an even worse home run problem.
Conversely, Taj Bradley is a Stuff+ darling and an Action Network favorite.
Of greater importance, I think the Rays have simply been playing much better recently. The bullpen, especially Pete Fairbanks and Colin Poche, is looking much improved after a horrendous start. The lineup ranks seventh in wRC+ over the past month, featuring eight guys with a wRC+ higher than 130 during the stretch.
I expect the Rays to score a bunch early off Carrasco and cruise to an easy victory behind their ever-improved bullpen.
Bet: Rays ML (-134, FanDuel)
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Blue Jays vs Diamondbacks
Yariel Rodriguez (RHP, TOR) vs Ryne Nelson (RHP, ARI)
I just think the Blue Jays have been super unlucky. Guys like Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are seeing the ball alright but getting nothing for their contributions, each underperforming their expected wOBA by almost 40 points.
But I think the tide is starting to turn. Guerrero has posted a 143 wRC+ over the past six weeks. George Springer is hitting again, posting the sixth-highest wRC+ among qualified pitchers over the past two weeks, a whopping 240 mark behind a 12% walk rate.
The Jays have won two straight series. They're undervalued, and things are starting to come together.
Ryne Nelson used to be an Action Network Guy, but his advanced pitching model profile has fallen off a cliff. He posted a 117 Stuff+ mark in his rookie year, but that's down to 95 this season. The velocity on his secondaries was down slightly in his most recent start, and his strikeout minus walk rate has dipped below 10%. His expected run indicators are around 4.50, and his batted-ball profile isn't much better.
I'm scared of backing Yariel Rodriguez, but I don't view him as a considerably worse arm than Nelson. His expected run indicators are hanging around four, and his advanced pitching model profile is just below the league average. I like his slider.
I'm also scared about backing the Jays' bullpen, which is among the worst in baseball. But Snake relievers haven't been any better. Toronto, Tampa, Colorado, and Arizona were the only four teams to post negative bullpen fWAR this year, and the Diamondbacks rank 25th in bullpen Pitching+.
The Diamondbacks can be tough to gauge in the lineup, but I think there's enough positive regression coming Toronto's way to justify a wager on them at plus-money odds.
Bet: Blue Jays ML (+108, FanDuel)
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Twins vs Giants
Joe Ryan (RHP, MIN) vs Kyle Hendricks (LHP, SFG)
Here’s how Minnesota’s lineup has performed against left-handed pitching over the past month:
- 46% hard-hit rate
- 10% barrel rate
- 29% fly-ball rate
- 86% zone-contact rate
- 14% strikeout rate
- .241 ISO
- 1.038 OPS
- .436 wOBA
- .401 xwOBA
- 192 wRC+
The Twins are obliterating southpaws. Why should I believe Giants’ stater Kyle Harrison can buck that trend?
Harrison is nothing special, boasting earned run indicators in the mid-fours (4.24 ERA, 4.79 xERA, 4.20 FIP, 4.41 xFIP) with sub-par advanced pitching model metrics (91 Stuff+, 100 Location+). He relies heavily on a low-velocity four-seam fastball (93 mph on average), which the Twins should crush, given they rank fourth among MLB lineups in Weighted Fastball Runs Created (+30.9).
Conversely, I am OK with backing the Twins' starting pitcher, Joe Ryan. He’s added some velocity this year, upping his fastball from 92.3 mph to 94.1 mph. He’s still commanding and controlling his arsenal excellently (107 Location+).
Ryan can be a tad Jekyll and Hyde, but I’m betting on him because the Giants are much worse against right-handed pitching than left-handed. San Francisco ranks eighth among MLB lineups in wRC+ against southpaws (116) and 14th against righties (98).
I think very highly of both bullpens, but Minnesota’s relievers are ultimately superior. The Twins rank top 10 in bullpen fWAR (3.0) and xFIP (3.88), and they’ve posted a relatively excellent 18% strikeout minus walk rate over the past two weeks.
Meanwhile, the Giants are slightly worse in all reliever metrics, and they’re slumping, posting a 4.86 ERA over the past two weeks.
Of greater importance, the Twins had an off day on Thursday while the Giants were stuck in a dogfight with Toronto, using both Rogers Bros. in a 5-3 loss.
Considering the matchup and the extra rest advantage, the Twins should cruise in this ballgame.
Bet: Twins ML (-148, DraftKings)
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McGrath's Best Bets for Friday, July 12
For additional bet notifications, follow me in the Action Network App (@tannerstruth).
- Blue Jays ML (+108, FanDuel)
- Rays ML (-134, FanDuel)
- Twins ML (-148, DraftKings)
