PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Playing any prop at a quantity of 1.5 is surely going to have plenty of variance, but there are several indicators pointing to the over of Grayson Rodriguez’ walks prop.
The Orioles righty, despite pitching well, has struggled with his command this season. He’s issued 20 walks in 45 innings and has surrendered at least two free passes allowed in six of his eight starts.
He specifically struggles against lefties with a 12.2% walk rate (and he was at 10.9% in a larger sample size last season). The Red Sox should trot out five or six lefties in their lineup tonight.
Rodriguez has eight walks in two starts since coming back from injury. I expect him to issue two more walks tonight.
A noticeable trend throughout Nestor Cortes' tenure with the Yankees has been that he pitches much better in the Bronx.
This season is no different as Cortes has pitched to a 6.75 ERA on the road. He’s failed to clear this line in four of five road starts and also went 4-for-5 to the under in 2023 and 8-for-13 in 2022.
The Angels have been much better versus southpaws this season, especially of late. Over the past 30 days, the Angels have accrued an impressive .825 OPS and 131 wRC+ versus lefties.
Over the course of the season, eight of 10 left-handed starters have failed to clear this line against the Angels.
