It's a crazy Wednesday slate with mostly afternoon first-pitch times. Daytime baseball is a beautiful thing.
If you want to add an edge to your daytime card, lock in a few player props using our Action Labs projections.
Using our tools, I've found two prop lines worth betting on.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in my discussions below.
MLB Player Props For Wednesday, April 5
Hunter Gaddis Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+115)
| Guardians @ A's | |
| First Pitch | 3:37 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Gaddis is only 24 years old and making his fourth MLB start. He allowed a whopping seven home runs in his two starts last year and four earned runs in his only start this year.
Yet, I can't help but back Gaddis today.
The Georgia State product is a monster (6-foot-6, 260 pounds) right-handed fastball pitcher, but he may have changed his arsenal.
A one-game sample size isn't enough to confirm this, but Gaddis threw his cutter more than his four-seam last start. Historically, he's thrown his four-seam more than half the time.
This is significant because the cutter is Gaddis' best pitch. He actually posted a negative Run Value with it last season, and the Mariners couldn't get ahold of it in Gaddis' first start, posting an 86.1 mph average exit velocity on six batted balls.
Gaddis' put-away percentage on his cutter is more than double the rate on his four-seam. He can actually convert with two strikes using this pitch.
Gaddis put away two Mariners on the pitch in his first start with the cutter, so he's working it well right now.
Gaddis' game has plenty of issues, but he still projects out as a 9.0 K/9 pitcher. And the matchup today is excellent.
The A's struck out at the sixth-highest rate against righties last season and posted the sixth-lowest weighted cutter runs created. The A's have posted a slightly-lower strikeout rate through five games this year, but there's still plenty of time for that number to go up, and this lineup looks bad.
Ultimately, there's too much value in the number to pass up. The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Gaddis for 5.2 Ks today, while BallParkPal's pitcher simulations have him at 4.9.
Yet, we can bet on over 4.5 Ks at plus-money right now.
Pick: Gaddis Over 4.5 Ks (+115)
Zack Greinke Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-148)
| Royals vs. Blue Jays | |
| First Pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Zack Greinke is cooked.
Greinke still has decent control, and his spin rates aren't terrible, but he's destined to be a mid-4.00s ERA pitcher until he finally retires.
This is what happens when your main offering is a 70 mph curveball.
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Notice the strikeout and whiff rates? Those are even worse than you might think compared to Greinke's past few years.
Greinke's strikeout rate fell to an impossibly low 12.5% last season. He posted a ridiculous 4.80 K/9, unreal over a 137-inning sample size.
As a result, Greinke eclipsed three strikeouts in just 10 of 27 starts last season, good for a 37% hit rate that implies -170 odds to the under.
Greinke snuck over 3.5 strikeouts against the Twins in his first start this year, but that was a different matchup.
The Blue Jays are contact kings, striking out less than 20% against righties since the start of 2022 while posting bottom-10 chase and whiff rates.
The Jays also pair their disciplined approach with a top-five wRC+, the highest hard-hit rate, and the highest average exit velocity in baseball. The Blue Jays mash while never striking out.
I'm not a fan of betting lines this juiced, but there is just no way Greinke strikes out four Jays on Wednesday. The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects him closer to 3.1, and I expect he'll land directly on three strikeouts.
Pick: Greinke Under 3.5 Ks (-148)
