Every day, I try to add an edge to my MLB betting card by selecting a few player props using our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in my discussions below.
Here are my picks for the MLB slate on Wednesday, May 10, which include two overs on strikeout totals.
MLB Player Props For Date, Day
Lance Lynn Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-135)
| White Sox @ Royals | |
| First Pitch | 7:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Lance Lynn is not pitching well. His ERA is approaching 7.00, while his xERA sits over 5.00.
I highly doubt Lynn will continue to post an HR/FB rate north of 20%, but his batted-ball profile looks poor, and I don't see many areas for positive regression.
That said, Lynn has been punching out everyone in sight. His strikeout rate is 28.2%, good for over 11 K/9, and he's eclipsed six strikeouts in five of his seven starts this year (twice hitting double-digit strikeouts).
Lynn in 2023 reminds me a bit of 2022 Hunter Greene — they can hit both over 6.5 strikeouts and over 3.5 earned runs in any given start.
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Lynn can still spin the ball, ranking above the 90th percentile in fastball spin rate while throwing three different types (four-seam, cutter, sinker).
So, Lynn spins balls past hitters. His four-seam and cutter have 30%+ whiff rates, and he has two secondary pitches with 30%+ whiff rates (curveball, changeup), although it's worth mentioning he rarely throws secondary stuff.
Either way, Lynn gets movement on his whole arsenal.
Lance Lynn was dealing. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/0RTcAzuIOu
— MLB (@MLB) September 6, 2022
Meanwhile, the Royals are strikeout happy. They rank seventh in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching (24.6%) and have allowed four consecutive opposing pitchers to eclipse their strikeout total.
The Royals also have a 78 wRC+ against the side and grade out as one of the league's worst fastball-hitting teams (-8.0 Weighted Fastball Runs Created).
Lynn torched the Royals for 21 strikeouts across 19 innings in three starts last season, and our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects him for 6.5 on Wednesday. I'll happily take a shot with him at over 5.5 (-135).
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (-135)
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Brayan Bello Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)
| Red Sox @ Braves | |
| First Pitch | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
You all know about Brayan Bello at this point.
The Red Sox youngster has electric stuff, including three pitches that move far more than the league-average.
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Bello's sinker is good at forcing ground balls, which is why he often has a ground-ball rate north of 50%. Meanwhile, he has one of the nastiest changeups in the league, which has forced a whiff rate north of 50% this year after inducing a 44% whiff rate last season.
But Bello is wildly inconsistent. He allows too many free passes, and batters are happy to square up his hard-yet-straight four-seamer.
Bello is prone to blowups, and all he did was blow up during his first few Major League starts.
However, Bello is earning experience, and he's started to steady himself. And if he can stay in the game long enough, he's going to strike out a lot of batters with that electric arsenal.
Bello's K/9 is approaching 10 after four starts this season. He's now eclipsed 4.5 strikeouts in seven of his past 10 starts and in three of his four this year.
He put together a masterful outing against the hard-hitting, disciplined Blue Jays, allowing only two earned runs over five innings with five strikeouts and one walk. His changeup was really working that day.
BRAYAN BELLO IS DEALING TONIGHT! pic.twitter.com/qxrytUqVWS
— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) May 4, 2023
Brayan Bello, Filthy Changeups. 😷 pic.twitter.com/9EFLOPd0ZO
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 4, 2023
The Braves boast one of the best lineups in baseball, so it's going to be very difficult for Bello to navigate on the road today.
However, Bello has two things going for him:
- First, the Braves can be strikeout prone. They struck out at the second-highest rate against righties last season (25.1%) and currently boast the ninth-highest rate against the side (24.3%).
- Secondly, the Braves aren't a great changeup-hitting team, boasting -1.7 Weighted Changeup Runs Created.
If Bello can avoid blowing up the first two times through the order, he should see enough opportunities to cash over 4.5 Ks. Look out for that changeup in two-strike counts.
The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Bello for 5.4 strikeouts today, so getting plus-money on 4.5 is a gift.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (+110)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
