Every day, I try to add an edge to my MLB betting card by selecting a few player props using our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in the discussion below.
Here are my picks for the MLB slate on Wednesday, May 31, including picks for Nationals vs. Dodgers and Reds vs. Red Sox.
MLB Player Props for Wednesday, May 31
Noah Syndergaard Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130)
| Dodgers vs. Nationals | |
| First Pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
I'm unsure if Noah Syndergaard's arm is still attached to his body. His fastball velocity is down to a career-low 93 mph and his swinging strike rate is under 10% for the second straight season.
Sadly, it's over for Syndergaard.
But that means we can continue fading him in the strikeout market.
Syndergaard has cashed under 3.5 strikeouts in six of 10 starts this year, and he's recording a paltry 6.27 K/9 mark.
Meanwhile, the Nationals are tough. They swing a lot (seventh in Swing rate) and make contact at the highest rate in baseball (80.3%).
As a result, the Nationals boast the second-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this year. They're striking out only 17% of the time over the past two weeks and have forced four of the past five opposing right-handed pitchers under their strikeout total.
Thor knows how tough these Nats can be. Syndergaard took on the Nats three times last year and stayed under 3.5 Ks in each start, accumulating only seven strikeouts across 16 2/3 innings.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Syndergaard for 3.2 strikeouts on Wednesday, while BallParkPal projects him at 3.1, so there's value in the number at FanDuel.
But either way, I'm always happy to fade Syndergaard.
Pick: Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130) | Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Luke Weaver Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-128)
| Reds @ Red Sox | |
| First Pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | FanDuel |
Who is Luke Weaver?
He's a journeyman starting pitcher who's been up and down his entire career. He's accumulated a surprising 6.6 fWAR throughout his eight years in the Show, although he hasn't posted a one-win season since 2018.
Weaver also has struck out four or more batters in five of seven starts this year, boasting a respectable 22.6% strikeout rate. His walk rate is way down, so I hope that helps him stay in at-bats and games.
Weaver has pitched at least six innings three times this year and has struck out six or more four times this season.
Boston boasts a tough lineup, but the Sox are regressing, boasting a .688 OPS over the past two weeks with MLB's 12th-highest strikeout rate.
As a result, they've allowed nine of the past 10 opposing starting pitchers to cash their strikeout prop.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Weaver for 4.8 Ks on Wednesday, while BallParkPal has him at 4.6.
There's plenty of value on Weaver at Fenway.
