MLB Player Prop Odds, Picks Today
Nationals vs. Guardians
Patrick Corbin
Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Patrick Corbin has a career-low strikeout rate of 13% so far this season, and all the underlying data supports that number, as he also has a career-low whiff rate.
Corbin also has a career-low first-strike rate, so he's been getting behind in the count more as well.
Tonight, Corbin faces a team that ranks bottom-five in strikeout rate in the Cleveland Guardians.
My sim shows Corbin with a 63% chance to stay under 3.5 strikeouts tonight, so getting plus odds here is a nice bonus.
Pick: Patrick Corbin Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Tanner Bibee
Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)
On the other side of the same matchup, we have a starting pitcher who is capable of racking up a ton of strikeouts, but Tanner Bibee also has a tough matchup tonight.
The Nationals will probably have around six left-handed hitters in the lineup tonight. Bibee's strikeout rate is 4% lower against left-handed batter, which means a lefty-heavy lineup will lower his expected K-rate a bit.
Bibee has also gotten the most strikeouts this season from his slider (25), and the Nationals have the third-lowest put-away rate against sliders.
Joey Gallo is clearly the easiest hitter to strike out in the Nationals' lineup, but with him likely hitting eighth, it's unlikely Bibee is able to face him a third time. That's a sneaky reason this prop is offering so much value.
I'm projecting Bibee closer to -200 to finish under 6.5 strikeouts. Some sportsbooks have him at 5.5, and I have that closer to -125.
Pick: Tanner Bibee Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)
Angels vs. Mariners
Bryan Woo
Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-106)
Bryan Woo is a pitcher who has a ton if strikeout upside, but he's been slowed down by injury so far this year as he dealt with inflammation in his right elbow.
Not only has that prevented Woo from throwing 80+ pitches in a game this season, but I suspect it's also why he's throwing his slider/sweeper combo at nearly half the rate he did last year. Those two pitches are his top strikeout pitches.
In his last start, Woo only threw those offerings 7% of the time, his lowest rate of the season. He also threw his sinker at the highest rate, and that's primarily a pitch he uses to induce weak contact.
It's hard to see how Woo's approach changes too much here, and expect him to lean on his four-seamer, sinker and changeup. The Angels rank bottom-six in either whiff rate or put-away rate on all three of those pitches, meaning they make contact with all three offerings at a higher rate than most teams.
I'm projecting Woo closer to -170 to stay under 5.5 strikeouts tonight.
