Below are my projections for the daily strikeout leader today, Tuesday, July 2nd.
Luis Gil should be the clear favorite according to my simulation, and the fact we have some slight weather concerns in the Tigers-Twins game, which would impact one of the top pitchers on the slate in Tarik Skubal, would only make it easier for Gil to take this down.
I like two longshots for this slate, too, in Hayden Birdson and Jose Soriano. I’m also on their K props as well, which you can read about below.
MLB Strikeout Props Tonight
White Sox vs. Guardians
Carlos Carrasco
Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Carlos Carrasco will most likely face 21-22 hitters tonight, which means he's unlikely to get to face his easiest strikeouts more than twice, in projected No. 6 hitter Paul DeJong and projected No. 9 hitter Korey Lee.
I'm projecting Carrasco closer to a 65% chance of staying under 4.5 strikeouts against the White Sox tonight.
Pick: Carlos Carrasco Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Giants vs. Braves
Hayden Birdsong
Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Hayden Birdsong was erratic in his MLB debut, striking out five and walking three.
His four-pitch mix was fairly solid and I think he can be a high strikeout percentage guy who will benefit from facing a swing-happy team like the Braves.
I'm projecting Birdsong closer to a 68% chance to clear this number. That might be too aggressive for him and he has a wide range of outcomes, so instead of going overboard on just his K prop, he's worth investing in in the most strikeouts market at +3100 as well.
Pick: Hayden Birdsong Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Angels vs. Athletics
Jose Soriano
Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+140)
Jose Soriano has too much upside against the Oakland Athletcs to be plus money here.
I'm projecting him closer to a 55% chance to clear 5.5 strikeouts tonight.
FanDuel is also offering his over 4.5 at -158, which is the safer route, and I'm projecting that closer to a 71% chance.
