PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
MacKenzie Gore Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115)
As the upstart Nationals look to stop their four-game skid, they’ll send Mackenzie Gore to the mound on Thursday in the finale of their series against the Mets.
Despite a solid 3.83 ERA, Gore has stayed under this outs prop in 11 of his 18 starts. His inability to consistently pitch deep into games stems from his pitch efficiency, as Gore has the fifth most pitches per plate appearance (4.16) amongst 117 qualified pitchers.
Another notable factor about this start is that Gore will be on a four-day rest. In that split, the southpaw is under this outs line in all seven outings, with a 6.38 ERA. His walk rate spikes to 10.4% (6.9% on five-plus days rest), and he throws fewer strikes (62.8%, compared to 65.2% on extended rest).
The matchup for Gore today won’t be a cakewalk either. The Mets have registered a 125 wRC+, .785 OPS, and .186 ISO against left-handed pitching this season – all ranking in the top four. And as a team, the Mets have had the seventh lowest chase rate over the last 30 days (per Statcast, via Fangraphs).
This will be the third time Gore has seen the Mets this season — he was shelled in one outing (on four days rest), and in the other start, he just snuck over this line with 17 outs (on five days rest).
I’ll bet on the Mets bats breaking through, with Gore on shorter rest. I have the southpaw projected to finish just five innings.
Pick: MacKenzie Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115) | Play to 16.5 (-135)
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