The New York Mets (68-63) and Arizona Diamondbacks (75-56) begin their three-game series on Tuesday night at Chase Field. First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET on SportsNet New York and DBACKS.TV.
These are the first and fourth teams in the National League wild-card standings, which should create a post-season-like atmosphere with just 30 games remaining for each after tonight's contest.
The Diamondbacks are on fire, sweeping the Red Sox on the road by multiple runs in each game and having won five straight. The Mets dropped two of three in San Diego and want to keep improving their strong road record.
In this Tuesday affair, Sean Manaea takes the mound for the Mets as the Diamondbacks turn to Eduardo Rodriquez for just his fourth start this season.
Let's get into the latest MLB odds, including a New York Mets vs Arizona Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-106 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +158 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 8.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -192 |
Mets vs Diamondbacks Projected Starting Pitchers
| Manaea | Stat | Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| 9-5 | W-L | 2-0 |
| 2.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 3.48 / 4.00 | ERA /xERA | 3.94 / 4.65 |
| 3.77 / 4.17 | FIP / xFIP | 4.17 / 4.25 |
| 1.17 | WHIP | 1.25 |
| 15.1% | K-BB% | 10.3% |
| 37.8% | GB% | 37.7% |
| 87 | Stuff+ | 82 |
| 97 | Location+ | 104 |
Justin Perri's Mets vs Diamondbacks Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview: Can Manaea Charm The Snakes?
Sean Manaea has been nothing short of impressive this year.
His 2.1 fWAR alone should tell you the value the Mets are getting from the 2-year $28-million signing. He's the 39th-ranked pitcher by fWAR, above names like Jose Berrios and Carlos Rodon, who earn much more.
Manaea relies on a combination of sinker and four-seam fastballs paired with his sweeper and changeup. The change isn't his greatest pitch, but the other three rank above the MLB average in Pitch Level Value (PLV). His 12.7% swinging strike rate ranks 61st among pitchers, which helps belay the walk rate issues, in which he ranks 154th among qualified pitchers at 9.2%.
The Southpaw must keep opposing runners off the base paths, as the Diamondbacks currently have the second-best OBP and the fifth-best wRC+ against lefties. Remove the plus from the weighted runs created calculation, which balances for the hitting environment, and Arizona jumps to the second highest against lefties. It could be a tough night for Maneaea. He will need his best stuff if he wants to keep the Diamondbacks — who have led the Majors in wRC+ since the break — off the board.
As for the Mets' offense, they slot in as the 10th-best team by wRC+ in the second half, and they're the second-best team by the same metric against southpaws such as Eduardo Rodriguez. Look for JD Martinez, who ranks 14th in the majors by wOBA against lefties, to do some damage. Lindor ranks 29th, and Alonso ranks 32nd. Add Brandon Nimmo at 64th, and you have a team that should hit well tonight.
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview: No Marte, No Walker, No Problem!
It's borderline ridiculous that the Diamondbacks are missing both of their home run leaders to injury and are still putting up the best wRC+ numbers of any team in August by 10%.
No, you did not read that wrong. In this current month, the Snakes have posted a 136 wRC+; the next best is the Yankees at 126. Again, doing so while missing both of their best players is a bit absurd.
This team has shown that they can pull it together in October, so what's stopping them from getting healthy and making another run to the World Series with more experience? Not much, from what I'm seeing. If anything, it's the pitching.
Tonight's starter for the Diamondbacks is Eduardo Rodriguez, who will be making his fourth start after coming off the IL in early August. He's worked his pitch count up from 65 to 83 and then 100 in his most recent outing, so he should be stretched out and ready for a full workload. He's relying on the four-seamer and change-up combination with a few cutters here and there, but the fastball sits around 92 MPH and isn't the best pitch. He just uses it very well in conjunction with the change-up.
That gets me a bit worried tonight. Rodriguez might not get the same bite on his changeup in the 100-degree, dry desert heat. His only start at home so far this season was against Colorado, who are terrible on the road. I think this could be Rodriguez's worst start so far, but he should have the strong Diamondbacks offense to back him up and give him a chance to win, even if he allows three or more runs tonight.
Mets vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Betting Analysis
There's been a slight shift in the odds towards the Mets on the money line — maybe about five cents of movement at most. There are a few shops with different numbers, which means shopping using the MLB Betting Hub is your friend when betting on this game.
The total opened at 8, was bet up to 9, and is now back down to 8.5 with slight juice to the over. The Diamondbacks hold a strong 38-24-1 O/U record when playing at home this season, and Chase Field is third this season in boosting runs at 8% more than the league average.
The Run Line is steep, and with the game price so close, you can find books with the +1.5 on either side or the -1.5. Given the expected tight game, you'll have to pay near -180 to get the extra run, but you'll also be able to find +175 for either team to win by two. The Diamondbacks have won 13 games as favorites by just one run.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110) | Play to 8.5 (-125)
Moneyline
I'd lean toward the Mets here if I had to make a pick on the side.
New York has a trio of lefty killers that should be in a great spot to hit what Eduardo Rodriguez offers. This is by far the toughest lineup for Rodriguez, and Manaea has been surprisingly effective this season.
The Mets bullpen should also have an edge with a day off, and Arizona has struggled a bit with closing games out.
Run Line (Spread)
There's no doubt in my mind here that taking the +1.5 is a better bet than laying the -1.5 with either team.
This one is priced with a high probability of a one-run game, which looks like a fair hypothesis.
The Diamondbacks are a weak 27-37 ATS when laying the -1.5, so I'd say Mets +1.5 if you had to have a spread play.
Over/Under
My pick for this matchup and my best bet of the day is on the total to go over.
The environmental factors should help the Mets locate the fastball, and what Eduardo Rodriguez is offering with that pitch was already worrisome.
Manaea then has to face a highly formidable offense that leads the league in scoring.
Mets vs Diamondbacks Weather
