Mets vs Braves Predictions, Picks, Best Bet Tonight — 9/24

The New York Mets (87-69) and Atlanta Braves (85-71) begin a crucial three-game series on Tuesday night at Truist Park. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET on SNY and Bally Sports South.

Mets vs Braves odds via Caesars Sportsbook have the Braves as -145 moneyline favorites and the Mets as +122 moneyline underdogs; the over/under is set at 7.5 (-110o / -110u). For my Mets vs Braves prediction, I will be targeting the total.

These two bitter rivals from the NL East are both fighting for their chances at a postseason appearance in the final week of the season. The Mets are currently half a game up on the Arizona Diamondbacks for the second wild-card spot, and the Braves are 1 1/2 games behind Arizona and thus two full games behind New York entering the series.

In tonight's series opener, Luis Severino takes the mound for the Mets and the Braves hand the ball to Spencer Schwellenbach.

Mets vs Braves Prediction

• Mets vs Braves pick: Over 8 (-110 | Play to -125, FanDuel)

My Mets vs Braves best bet is on the over, where I see value at -110. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.

Tuesday, Sep 24

7:20 p.m. ET

SNY

New York Mets Odds
Run Line	Over/Under	Moneyline
+1.5 -170	7.5 -110o / -110u	+122

Atlanta Braves Odds
Run Line	Over/Under	Moneyline
-1.5 +143	7.5 -110o / -110u	-145

Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Justin Perri’s Mets vs Braves Preview, Predictions

Mets Betting Preview: Luis Severino Shaky on the Road

The Mets are in an interesting position to begin their week. They didn't play yesterday, but their competition in the National League Wild Card Race did — and they lost. The Arizona Diamondbacks suffered a 6-3 loss a the hands of the San Fransisco Giants yesterday, giving the Mets a half-game lead for the second wild-card spot.

With such a crucial week ahead, the Mets are turning to Luis Severino to start them off on the right foot. Severino employs a vertical approach to confuse hitters, keeping his four-seam fastball high and then using the sinker/sweeper mix to induce an above-average ground ball rate and a below-average ideal contact rate for opposing hitters. His pitches all have velocities in the 90th percentile of MLB starters, which fuels his 107 Stuff+ rating.

Severino might be getting a bit lucky this year. He has a slightly lower than expected BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) and a high left on base percentage, while his slightly lower than average strikeout rate and well below average walk rate leave plenty to be desired.

In terms of recent form, Severino has faced the Phillies in back-to-back outings, allowing three runs in each of them and combining for 12 strikeouts and one win while giving up just eight totals hit and three walks. Prior to that, though, he allowed more than one run just once in the previous five starts, and his pitch separation has looked good.

The concern is that he's given up a much higher 4.80 ERA on the road than he has at home, where he's pitched to a 2.96 ERA. This is mostly due to giving up almost 50% more home runs in 25% less innings when pitching away from the beneficial confines of Citi Field, as he is today.

The Mets offense has been rolling, sitting in the top five of the league in wRC+ over the last two weeks. The team usually hits better on the road for the same reason its pitchers perform worse on the road. This year at Truist Park, they have scored 8, 5 and 14 runs, respectively, and that was in the cool weather of early April.

There's probably a good chance we see some scoring again today. The Mets are 7-3 O/U in their last 10 games and all three of the games in the early season series in Atlanta went well over any number that could have been set, averaging a robust 15 runs per game.

Braves Betting Preview: Atlanta Must Make Its Move Now

There is no way to put it kindly for the Braves: If they lose this series to New York, their season is over. There are only six more games and they are back by 1.5 to the Diamondbacks, who are one game ahead in their schedule with one more loss than the Mets have. So the Braves need to make moves.

This is just a three-game set, and then they have another three at home against Kansas City. So the timer is counting down, if they win all six, they are guaranteed the third wild card because they would be leading the Mets by one after a sweep and then be unable to relinquish that lead because they wouldn't have lost.

However, while that is a scenario where the Braves can control their own destiny, the Mets only need to go 4-2 to clinch a playoff appearance, leaving Arizona as the only hope for Atlanta. So, bottom line, this series is big. Every game these teams are playing are almost life or death, and by this weekend, they will be.

It is important to note that the series is tied 5-5 on the year, so there would be large implications from this set in a potential standings tie. Grab your popcorn!

Spencer Schwellenbach is starting for the Braves and has been in consistent form recently. He's allowed three or fewer earned runs in 10 straight starts since the end of July, posting a 2.75 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 59 innings.

Schwellenbach rates in the 92nd percentile in swinging strike rate and his 3.35 xFIP is also in the 90th percentile. He's been solid. He did get touched up against the Blue Jays for six runs, but three were unearned thanks to inning-extending errors.

After being largely average as a collective offense this year, mostly due to major injuries, Atlanta has really come around offensively in the last week or so, when it's mattered most. The Braves have scored 6+ runs in 5 of their last 10 games, winning all of those contests. They're a little below the median home team at 22nd with a 97 wRC+ (3% worse than overall average MLB performance) when playing at Truist.

The Braves have one of the strongest bullpens in the MLB, with a 3.31 ERA on the season, ranking third of all teams. They also have a strong home under record of 24-48-3 O/U on the season, as well as a 44-72-9 O/U when made the favorite.

With a down offensive year, Atlanta being made the favorite has clearly correlated with its pitching being expected, and able, to keep opposing hitting off the board. Truist is also profiling as high strikeout, low home run total park this season, which is different than past seasons and lines up with the totals trend.

That said, these teams know each other well and scored a fair number of runs even at Citi Field. If today's game is to stay under the total of 8, it will likely do so by just a run or two.

Mets vs Braves Prediction, Betting Analysis

Taking a look at the market and the movement we can see in the Action App, this line opened with the Braves favored at -134, briefly touching -130 as an initial overnight move before going to -135 and then staying at -140 for most of the night before an early morning move to -145, which is where it sits now.

There's been no real resistance, but it's not too dramatic of a move. The total line has stayed flat at 8 with some slight dancing from -115 to -110 and various numbers depending on where you shop.

For Atlanta, losing tonight would mean being three games back of the Mets, likely leaving their fate at the hands of the Diamondbacks and Giants series. This should amount to a playoff atmosphere, as these are the final six games of the season and they are do or die.

These teams know and hit each other well, and I feel as though the line of 8 is likely just a bit too low even with how well these pitchers have been performing. Both sides have the potential to put up seven runs on any given night with how they're performing.

I am not going to try to get cute — even with rested bullpens, you also have rested hitters. Trust the offense and take the Over 8 at -110, as there should also be very solid hitting conditions.

Pick: Over 8 -110 (Play to -125 | FanDuel)

Moneyline

Both teams are coming in hot. The Mets are winners of seven of their last 10 and the Braves have won four of their last five. The Braves are a strong 72-53 when Vegas makes them the favorites, and with their backs against the wall, I do lean their way to get it done in a big opening statement to the series.

The Braves are at home, where they have a strong record this year and the crowd will likely be behind them after a solid road trip to stay in the race. I lean towards their side to get it done, but expect it to need a bigger offensive performance, as the Mets have been scoring consistently of late.

Run Line (Spread)

With how under-dominant Truist has been and how often the Braves strong pitching leaves them favored at Truist, Atlanta has played in many close games at home. That does not mean that this one will be a close win, but the Braves' 32-43 home ATS record, along with their 57-68 ATS record as the favorite, likely mean there could be some value on a sneaky -1.5 today.

With the potential for a high run-scoring environment, this should be a spot where you take the team you like on the -1.5 as well as the money line, if even for a sprinkle. The scenarios in which the Mets lose are likely by multiple runs, and the same goes for the Braves. Whichever team keeps the hot hitting going is going to win by multiple runs over the other. I would lean Braves -1.5 at the +150 or so available pricing.

Over/Under

My favorite play is for there to be runs today. Truist is normally a bit of a tough place for pitchers to pitch, but this year it hasn't been that way. Home-run balls have stayed in the park a bit more this season but I think when you have guys like Pete Alonso and Matt Olson making contact, the plus or minus 10 feet that the park brings aren't changing the result of their average home run. Plus, with a lower air density today, there might be some difficulty for Severino to get separation on his sinker/sweeper combo, and the same for Schwellenbach on his hyper-effective slider.

• 81% of the bets and 33% of the money is on the Braves moneyline
• 34% of the bets and 70% of the money is on the Mets to cover the spread (+1.5)
• 69% of the bets and 71% of the money is on the over (7.5)

Mets Betting Trends

• The Mets are 40-35 in their road games against the spread
• The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Mets' last 5 games

Braves Betting Trends

• The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Braves' last 5 games
• The totals have gone OVER in 24 of Braves' 75 last games at home