The Milwaukee Brewers host the New York Mets on July 21, 2026. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on BREW.
The Brewers are favored by -134 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Mets are +114 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mets vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mets vs Brewers Prediction
- Mets vs Brewers Pick: Mets F5 ML (+110 or Better)
My Mets vs Brewers best bet is on New York. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Brewers Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 8.5 -122o / -100u | +114 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -122o / -100u | -134 |
- Mets vs Brewers moneyline: Mets +114, Brewers -134
- Mets vs Brewers over/under: 8.5 (-122 / -100)
- Mets vs Brewers spread: Brewers -1.5 (+150), Mets +1.5 (-182)
Mets vs Brewers Probable Pitchers
| Zac Thornton (LHP, NYM) | Stat | Brandon Sproat (RHP, MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 3-4 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 2.60 / 3.97 | ERA / xERA | 5.16 / 4.89 |
| 2.99 / 3.93 | FIP / xFIP | 5.12 / 4.26 |
| 14.9% | K-BB% | 13.6% |
| 39.1% | GB% | 43.3% |
| .217 | BABIP | .287 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 91 | Location+ | 96 |
Mets vs Brewers MLB Betting Preview
I was scrolling through BARTOLO (as one does) when I noticed the breakdown for this matchup:
Mets vs Brewers Pick, Betting Analysis
The Mets are heavy underdogs against Brandon Sproat? Even on the F5 ML?
Sproat is a super below-average arm with earned run indicators nearing five (5.16 ERA, 4.89 xERA, 4.89 botERA). He walks too many batters (11% rate) and allows too much hard contact (41% rate).
We don't have a huge sample size on Zac Thornton, but his 15% K-BB rate is promising — that's the metric that tends to stabilize the earliest.
The Brewers may have the best record in baseball, but I assume that only makes them overvalued. Meanwhile, the Mets still proejct for a 107 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
Pick: Mets F5 ML (+110 or Better)
