The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers square off in Game 1 of the World Series on Friday night at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FOX; other viewing and streaming options include MLB.TV, YouTube TV and Fubo.
Yankees vs Dodgers Game 1 odds (from Caesars Sportsbook) have the Dodgers as -115 moneyline favorites and the Yankees as -105 underdogs after New York opened at +112. The over/under is 9 total runs (-105o / -115u). The Dodgers are +152 to cover the run line (-1.5) and the Yankees are -180 to cover (+1.5).
Below you can find my Yankees vs Dodgers prediction,picks and best bet for Game 1 of the Fall Classic — plus the latest World Series odds, probable pitchers (Gerrit Cole and Jack Flaherty), starting lineups, key injuries and more.
Yankees vs Dodgers Prediction for Game 1
- Yankees vs Dodgers picks: Yankees Moneyline (+110)
My Yankees vs Dodgers best bet for Game 1 is the Yankees moneyline, where I see value at +110. The best line is available at BetRivers. You can find more MLB picks for the World Series on our MLB page.
Yankees vs Dodgers Game 1 Odds, Predictions, Best Bet
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-105 | 9 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -180 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-115 | 9 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +152 |
- Yankees vs Dodgers Moneyline: Yankees -105, Dodgers -125
- Yankees vs Dodgers Total: Over/Under 9 (+105o / -125u)
- Yankees vs Dodgers Run Line: Yankees +1.5 (-180), Dodgers -1.5 (+152)
- Yankees vs Dodgers Best Bet: Yankees Moneyline (+110)
Moneyline
My top pick is on the moneyline tonight, as I ride with my hometown team.
It could lead to double the heartbreak, but the Yankees will be a formidable challenge for Jack Flaherty, and I am arguing that Gerrit Cole will have a better chance to succeed against the Dodgers. It might not feel right as the Dodgers have been talked about so extensively all year that it feels as though they are inevitable.
However, the back of their batting order leaves so much to be desired that I think the Yankees gain enough of an advantage there — and with the benefit of Cole on the mound, they are a must play for me.
Pick: Yankees moneyline
Run Line (Spread)
With a lean towards the over, my spread take is going to be to lay the runs rather than to buy them.
I think that holds true for both the Dodgers and the Yankees. Whichever team you think is going to win tonight should therefore have value to you on the run line.
The offensive prowess of both sides means that they have the potential to put up bigger crooked numbers more often, and I feel pretty safe saying that one-run games might not be that common in this series.
Pick: Lay the runs and expect a margin of victory greater than one depending on which side you prefer on the moneyline.
Over/Under
Set at 8.5, this total is one that my numbers show to have one of the widest distributions in the playoffs thus far. That makes sense — the three best hitters by OPS in this series are Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto. But also there are ace-caliber arms that could shut down any hitter on the mound tonight.
This contest could realistically finish with four runs or 13.
If you are to take a total here, I would recommend the over. These teams have so much hitting talent and the game could open up with just a few swings.
Both Gerrit Cole and Jack Flaherty have a propensity to surrender runs in a hurry if things go wrong. I will be looking at some alternate overs if the price is right — the upper limit is much higher than a normal World Series game.
Pick: Lean on the over
Yankees vs Dodgers Game 1 Probable Starting Pitchers
| RHP Gerrit Cole (NYY) | Stat | RHP Jack Flaherty (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-5 | W-L | 13-7 |
| 1.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.2 |
| 3.41 / 3.59 | ERA /xERA | 3.17 / 3.51 |
| 3.69 / 3.99 | FIP / xFIP | 3.48 / 3.00 |
| 1.13 | WHIP | 1.07 |
| 17.9% | K-BB% | 24% |
| 38.7% | GB% | 39.5% |
| 111 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 101 | Location+ | 102 |
Yankees vs Dodgers Game 1 Previews, Predictions, Starting Lineups
Yankees Game 1 Betting Preview
Yankees Game 1 Lineup
- Gleyber Torres (2B)
- Juan Soto (RF)
- Aaron Judge (CF)
- Giancarlo Stanton (DH)
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (3B)
- Anthony Rizzo (1B)
- Anthony Volpe (SS)
- Austin Wells (C)
- Alex Verdugo (LF)
- Starting Pitcher: Gerrit Cole
Let's set the record straight from the top here, shall we?
The Yankees are the best road team in baseball. They won almost 63% of their games away from the Bronx, the next-best mark was 58% — a difference of seven road wins. That is not a small nor discardable margin. New York is decidedly more effective away from the confines of its own ballpark.
Why do the Yanks do so well on the road? I am not sure.
Maybe the pressure of Yankee Stadium, or how every non-New York athlete perks up and attempts to play its best in the biggest sports city in the world. All is pure conjecture, but nonetheless, if you think that these teams are even but a home-field advantage might sway things toward the Dodgers — think again.
These two cities are separated by 4,000 miles and six hours by plane, but they might as well be neighbors for the amount of cross-population and transplants between the two coastal metropolitans. My point? Yankee fans are going to be loud tonight in LA, and the same will hold true with Dodgers fans when the series returns to New York.
That's down the road though. Tonight, in Game 1, the Yankees have a major advantage — his name is Gerrit Cole and and he won the AL Cy Young Award last season.
The Yankees ace is 1-0 with a 3.31 ERA this postseason, but more importantly, the Yankees are 3-0 in his three outings so far in the playoffs. He has not been perfect, but it is unrealistic to expect shutouts against playoff offenses.
Cole gives the Yankees exactly what they need every time — a high likelihood of limiting opponents to mortal run totals while the god-like slugging trio of Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton attempt to tee off.
If you have ever carefully watched Cole pitch, you know he throws hard. All four of his main offerings rate in the top 15th percentile in velocity. The heater, which he throws almost half the time, resulted in a batting average against of just 0.191 this past regular season, and then he mixes in one of the best curveballs amongst starters in the league!
If that curve/heater combo is on, then he can mix in the slider with a few cutters … and then the "turbo sinker" that he apparently has in his back pocket that nobody has seen before. There's a very good chance he stymies the formidable Dodgers, or at least keeps their run total within reason.
Trying to predict where the Yankees offense will come from is a game of chance, but with the way that Stanton has been seeing the ball, you have to think he is a major threat to go yard throughout the series.
Going 4-for-18 with four home runs and seven RBI in the ALCS shows you exactly why the the slugger goes up there with full fervor on every at-bat. His swings are insanely valuable, and it wouldn't shock me one bit to see him capitalize on a mistake from Jack Flaherty.
Of course, when you build an offense around slugging, like the Yankees have, there will always be a question mark on if the big swings connect, but you can't dwell on hypotheticals. Instead, you take your chances on aggregate.
Zooming out, the bottom line is that Cole's average performance gives the Yankees hitters a great shot to build a lead and win the game. Yes, the Yankees will lose without big hits, and they will lose with a bad Cole start. That's how it works, but if you're not wagering on New York behind Cole, who are you wagering on them behind?
I'm on my home-town Yankees to steal Game 1 and set the tone in LA.
Dodgers Game 1 Betting Preview
Dodgers Game 1 Lineup
- Shohei Ohtani (DH)
- Mookie Betts (RF)
- Freddie Freeman (1B)
- Teoscar Hernandez (LF)
- Max Muncy (3B)
- Enrique Hernandez (CF)
- Will Smith (C)
- Gavin Lux (2B)
- Tommy Edman (SS)
- Starting Pitcher: Jack Flaherty
There's a fair argument for biggest superstar in baseball, and this year we get to see the fight for that title play out on the biggest stage the sport has to offer.
Even as a Yankees fan, I know Shohei Ohtani is the front runner in that race — he might not have the pure slugging that Aaron Judge possesses, but he's close enough that when you add on that he can also pitch at the Major League level, it simply doesn't compute.
The benefit of having one of your sluggers also be able to take the mound every six days is going to be profound on the Dodgers roster once he does return to pitching, but for now, Ohtani is simply the best hitter in the National League while he recovers from Tommy John surgery.
Yes, that's correct, he's hitting while his ligament recovers and has put up a 1.036 OPS and founded the 50-50 club while doing so. It is certainly tough to one-up that resume.
The one accolade Ohtani is missing, though, is the one set out before him. Can he add the World Series crown to his trophy case?
To do so, he and the Dodgers will have to win Game 1 behind Jack Flaherty, who is coming off a tough start in the NLCS. Flaherty allowed eight runs to the Mets in just three innings — the fifth time in his last six starts he's allowed at least three runs.
If Flaherty can tap in to what his regular season numbers were like, he should be primed for a well-timed turnaround. His 29.9% strikeout rate was 9th best for starters this year, and he was 4th in Called Strike Plus Whiff Rate (CSW%).
He's a Rembrandt — his called-strike rate on his heater is in the 99th percentile, with an 85th percentile zone rate, meaning he's dotting the corners.
Then his auxiliary slider and curve mix are bottom-10th percentile in the zone but both get close to a 40% (85th percentile) O-Zone swing rate. He makes you think the breaking stuff is going to hit the corner and then it jumps out of the zone and you're swinging at a bad pitch. It's magic when he's in good form.
The Dodgers lineup has their own set of three MVPs, with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman behind Ohtani. How that trio fares will tell the fate of the Dodgers.
Their one weakness to New York is the depth of hitters in the lineup, especially against a top-notch staff like what the Yankees will send out.
Max Muncy has been bringing power but the struggles of Teoscar Hernandez in the postseason and the lack of threats from the bottom-third of the order puts extra pressure on the big bats. Dodgers fans will be on their toes immediately in every first inning, because if L.A. fails to score at the top of the lineup, the vast likelihood is that the run-producing opportunities may not come elsewhere.
My personal opinion on this Dodgers team is that they will require more player-level heroics than the Yankees will to win. That is not to say they can not do it, but New York is the more evenly balanced team with less weaknesses.
The Dodgers might have more strengths, but only time will tell which team yields a fresh banner to adorn the heights of one of these two World Series venues.
Yankees vs Dodgers Lines, Moneyline Betting Analysis
There hasn't been a more anticipated World Series in decades. The two biggest cities in American sports with the two biggest stars in baseball face off for the ultimate best-of-seven, championship-deciding battle.
Where do I stand?
I have the Yankees as slight favorites in Game 1. If I were a bookmaker, I would offer you -115, so I will tell you to play this line to -105 to ensure we have enough of an edge long term.
The Dodgers hype is understandable, but the starting pitching staff they have — or lack thereof — simply isn't constructed well enough outside of Flaherty, mostly due to injuries. Even Flaherty is likely going to struggle here, as the Padres and Mets lineups, while good, aren't as formidable as the Yankees'.
Flaherty has never faced Judge, nor Stanton. Anthony Rizzo is 9-for-21 with three homers against him.
Meanwhile Cole has competitive history against all of the Dodgers' main hitters. Cole has a Maddux-esque gamesmanship to him, and I expect him to bring it, taking advantage of the film the Dodgers are studying and attempting to play against their expectations in various scenarios.
As for the offenses, that's where this game truly lies.
If there were no home runs allowed in the sport, I think the Yankees would be favored tonight easily. Like a wall that kept the ball in the park or something, but obviously thats not the case and the home-run ball acts as the great equalizer in this sport even when you're outmatched.
The variability cooked into which side gets lucky to have the home runs tonight is the main basis for such a tight line. Either team can win this contest if they catch a ball or two on the barrel of the bat, but when it boils down to it, I trust Cole and the Yankees to put themselves in better positions to avoid those barrels from the mound and find them from the batters box.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline +110 (DraftKings | Play to -105)
Yankees Trends
- Three of the last five Yankees games have gone over the total
- The Yankees were 45-36 in their road games against the spread in the regular season
- Gerrit Cole has made five career starts at Dodger Stadium — L.A. put up at least three runs in each of them
Dodgers Betting Trends
- The last five Dodgers games have gone over the total
- In the first two games of the World Series, home teams are 23-13 on the moneyline
- During this postseason, home teams are just 19-19 on the moneyline, including 34-45 over the last two postseasons
- Dodger Stadium overs were 53-42-4 this season
Yankees vs Dodgers Game 1 Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, Calif. |
| Date: | Friday, Oct. 25, 2024 |
| Time: | 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV & Streaming Options: | FOX / MLB.TV, Fubo, YouTube TV |
Yankees vs Dodgers Key Injuries; World Series Roster Moves
Yankees Injuries & News
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| LHP Nestor Cortes | Left elbow flexor strain (on World Series roster) |
| 1B Jon Berti | Right hip flexor strain (left off World Series roster) |
Dodgers Injuries & News
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| 1B Freddie Freeman | Right ankle sprain (in Game 1 starting lineup) |
| 2B Gavin Lux | Hip (in Game 1 starting lineup) |
| LHP Alex Vesia | Right side tightness (on World Series roster) |
| RHP Brusdar Graterol | Right shoulder inflammation (on World Series roster) |
| SS Miguel Rojas | Left adductor tear (on World Series roster) |
| RHP Evan Phillips | Right arm (left off World Series roster) |
| RHP Shohei Ohtani | Right elbow surgery (not pitching in World Series) |
| OF Kevin Kiermaier | Left off World Series roster |
