The New York Yankees (87-63) and Seattle Mariners (77-73) begin their three-game series on Tuesday night at T-Mobile Park. First pitch is set for 9:40 p.m. ET on MLB Network. Let's look at the latest MLB odds and my Yankees vs. Mariners prediction.
These are two teams both competing for postseason positioning and their divisional titles with just two weeks to go in the MLB regular season. They've also both had very strong weekend, each taking three of four from a divisional rival at home heading into this East vs West series.
The Yankees, who just captured the season series win from the Boston Red Sox, are the best team in the American League by just half a game and have a three-game lead over the Orioles in the AL East. The Mariners, who just won three in a row against the Rangers, are now four games back from the Houston Astros in the AL West and just two games back from the final wild-card spot.
In this consequential Tuesday affair, Rookie of the Year candidate Luis Gil takes the mound for the Yankees as the Mariners turn to the five-pitch mix of 24-year-old starter, Bryan Woo.
Yankees-Mariners Prediction
- Yankees-Mariners picks: Mariners F5 Money Line (-105| Play to -110)
My Yankees-Mariners best bet is on Seattle to win the F5 Moneyline, where I see value at -105. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Mariners Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-120 | 7.5 +108 / -132 | -1.5 +136 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+100 | 7.5 +108 / -132 | +1.5 -164 |
Yankees vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Luis Gil (NYY) | Stat | RHP Bryan Woo (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 13-6 | W-L | 8-2 |
| 2.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.0 |
| 3.18 / 3.66 | ERA /xERA | 2.38 / 2.57 |
| 3.82 / 4.25 | FIP / xFIP | 3.34 / 3.85 |
| 1.17 | WHIP | 0.82 |
| 15.2% | K-BB% | 17.8% |
| 36.7% | GB% | 41.2% |
| 110 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 94 | Location+ | 108 |
Justin Perri’s Yankees vs Mariners Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Can Gil Outduel Woo?
The Yankees and their starter tonight have both seen ups and downs to their season. Even now, the clear favorite for the AL MVP, Aaron Judge, is slumping as New York plays their most consequential games of the waning season.
New York has a chance to start its week off right with a crucial win behind Luis Gil, who leads the club in starter win percentage at 68.4% (or 13-6). The Yankees flew to Seattle with a rest day on Monday and play late, but they've had success against Seattle in recent attempts. Last season, they scored 20 runs in their first two games at T-Mobile, and this year they split the first four games of the season series in New York.
New York's task won't be easy, as Bryan Woo shut them out over six innings with just two hits allowed in that first series this season. The Mariners won that game by a score of 6-3. So the best chance, and most likely only chance, that New York has to take this opening contest against the pitcher who dominated them last time is for their own starter to match him frame for frame.
Gil has a good chance to do that, which is why this game is priced with the Yankees as slight favorites. Gil might not have the same location ability as Woo, but his stuff is equally nasty and he appears to be in good form.
The 26-year-old rookie has thrown 11 innings in two starts since returning from the injury list, allowing just one run to the Royals and blanking the Cubs. It's also worth noting that his slider graded out highly in his last start with over 10 inches of induced horizontal break.
New York is 17-9 in Gil's 26 starts this season and holds a robust 45-30 record on the road. They've also gone under quite frequently of late, with the total on a 1-8-1 o/u run in the Yankees last 10 games.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview: Can Offense Stay Hot?
The Mariners have a chance. That's all that matters. This team was leading the AL West for a majority of the season, only to see a second-half slump align with the Houston Astros getting hot and the division slipping out of their grasp.
They're four games back in the West, but only two games back from Minnesota in the wild card. So this series means a lot, plus it's the Yankees — which means opposing fans in your own stadium, heavy media presence, and a chip on your shoulder while fighting one of the biggest payrolls in baseball.
Tonight, Seattle face The Bronx Bombers behind one of its many incredible starting pitching options. It really can't be overstated just how impressive this Seattle rotation has been, and Bryan Woo has been a major part of that equation.
Woo has a 0.82 WHIP on the season. He rates out at a 108 in Location+, one of the highest grades I've seen for the stat. What he's done this season is best summarized by his most recent start, where he threw six innings of no-hit ball just to give up two runs on two hits and a walk late in the 7th inning. The Mariners still won, as they have in 13 of his 19 starts, but this is a kid who is only 24 and in his second season at the big-league level.
Woo's arsenal is scary. He features two highly effective fastballs, a four seamer and a sinker, that he then combines with a trio of out-pitches: a slider, a changeup and a sweeper. All of these pitches feature impressive break and vertical approach angles that make them tough to hit.
The Mariners should feel secure behind their starter, but the bigger question is whether their offense will stay hot. They've been the second-best team by wRC+ since the start of the month, with a rating 34% better than the average MLB offense in that span, adjusted for park factors. The last part is important there, because it's hard to hit at T-Mobile. Bryan Woo's home split is 1.66 ERA and 0.64 WHIP, for reference.
Seattle has been clicking a bit more at home of late, though, and much of that is behind the hot play of Victor Robles and Luke Raley. The duo has combined to score 18 runs and drive in another 16 in September alone. The Mariners have won 45 of 75 games played at home but just 21 of 47 games when priced as the underdog, as they are today.
There's plenty to consider, but there's probably some value in rolling behind an elite pitcher who has proven he can shut down the Yankees before, especially as home 'dogs.
Yankees vs Mariners Prediction, Betting Analysis
There's been about as little movement on the moneyline as possible in this game, as an open of -122 has now shifted to -120 for New York. The total opened at 7.5 with heavy -120 juice to the under, and it's since dropped to 7 with -110 pricing on either side, so the market does expect the pitchers to do well at T-Mobile.
My prediction is that the price being offered to back Bryan Woo at home is too good. TheYankees often attract attention that makes their price worse than true odds, plus with how the Seattle offense has been producing runs, the value at -105 to back a pitcher who is as "in his bag," as Woo is currently at his pitcher-friendly home park, is too good to turn down.
Pick: Mariners F5 ML -105 (Play to -110)
Moneyline
The Mariners might have a bit of a disadvantage today once Woo comes out, but with how the hitting has looked recently for Seattle, this is about as good of a chance to ride with them as there gets.
The Yankees historically have struggled on West Coast trips, and even with the rest day could have some difficulty with the late start time or just Woo's fastballs. There's value in taking the home team today as underdogs, especially in the first five innings to isolate Woo's pitching.
The bullpen for Seattle can be a bit shaky, and with a day of rest, New York probably has the late-inning pitching advantage and could pull off a comeback win if this is a low-scoring game.
Run Line (Spread)
Run lines and their odds are functions of the expected run-scoring environment. More runs scored means a better chance for a team to win by multiple runs; less runs scored, thus, means the opposite.
So in a game where the total is at a meager seven, there's going to be a steep price to buy the extra 1.5 runs on Seattle and a generous price if you take the Yankees, or either team for that matter, to win by multiple runs.
My advice is likely to stay away from the Run Line today, but if you have to go with one, I think you take the New York minus the 1.5 runs for the +145 price. The Yankees are a solid 56-67 ATS when made the favorite, which would break even at around a +122 number, and they do have a solid chance to win any given game by multiple runs.
Over/Under
The total here is tough, as the market is clearly respecting these pitchers, but both lineups deserve credit as well. A 3-3 game earns a push on an over, at worst, and I think both of these teams have what it takes to score three runs tonight.
Woo is solid but could easily give up one or two runs to a mistake on his changeup, especially to such a powerful lineup that won't be as bothered by environmental factors if they make good contact.
Gil has looked good since returning, but he's had difficulty with fatigue, and seeing his first couple starts after a monthlong rest go well might just be freshness that could start to wear off a bit on the long road trip here. I think he could give up some small-ball runs to a Seattle offense that is clicking behind Victor Robles. Over is my lean.
Yankees-Mariners Betting Trends
- 66% of the bets and 79% of the money are on the Yankees' moneyline.
- 78% of the bets and 79% of the money are on the over.
- 85% of the bets and 85% of the money are on the Yankees to cover the run line.
Yankees Betting Trends
- The Yankees are 40-35 in road games against the spread.
- New York is 1-4 in its last five games ATS.
- The total has gone over in none of the Yankees' last five games
Mariners Betting Trends
- The total has gone over in 28 of Seattle's last 75 games at home.
- The total has gone over in three of the Mariners' last five games, however.
- The Mariners are 3-2 in their last five games ATS.
