The Philadelphia Phillies (91-61) and New York Mets (84-68) begin their four-game series on Thursday night at Citi Field. First pitch is set for 7 p.m. ET on FOX. These are the top two teams in the National League East, and fierce rivals, each fighting hard for postseason seeding with just 10 games left in the regular season.
Entering Thursday, the Phillies hold the best record in the National League by just one game over the Dodgers after last night's loss to the Brewers. The Mets find themselves tied for the second NL wild-card spot with the Diamondbacks — both have a two game lead over the Braves.
In this Thursday affair, Taijuan Walker takes the mound for the Phillies as the Mets turn to Luis Severino. Let's get into the latest MLB odds, including my Phillies vs Mets prediction and pick.
Phillies vs Mets Prediction
- Phillies-Mets pick: Mets F5 -0.5 (+100 | Play to -110)
My Phillies-Mets best bet is on Mets First Five Run line, where I see value at +100. The best line is available at BetMGM, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Mets Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+116 | 8 -114 / -106 | +1.5 -170 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-134 | 8 -114 / -106 | -1.5 +140 |
Phillies vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Taijuan Walker (PHI) | Stat | RHP Luis Severino (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-6 | W-L | 10-6 |
| -0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.0 |
| 6.29 / 6.54 | ERA /xERA | 3.77 / 3.92 |
| 6.34 / 5.09 | FIP / xFIP | 4.21 / 4.18 |
| 1.63 | WHIP | 1.23 |
| 6.9% | K-BB% | 12.8% |
| 38.2% | GB% | 45.6% |
| 88 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 98 | Location+ | 100 |
Justin Perri’s Phillies vs Mets Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Time To Get It Right On The Road
The Phillies are a great baseball team, in fact they are the best baseball team in the MLB at the moment by a single game. For all their prowess and talent, for the aces and the sluggers, there's still the unsightly blemish of Taijuan Walker's season. Walker is returning to the rotation today for the first time since late August. The Phillies had lost every game, 9 straight, that he had started across an injury list stint and Walker, himself, had picked up six losses in that span.
The 6.29 ERA and 1.63 WHIP he carries on the year have improved since the move to the pen, he put together a 4.50 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP in his three relief appearances, but much of the positive motion there comes from a three inning appearance against these same Mets that he put together five days ago. Three hits, no strikeouts, and that's enough to get you back into the rotation.
Seriously, manager Rob Thompson cited how he looked in that one spot as the reason he's going back to the rotation as well as being the most veteran guy on the squad. It's a bit more understandable when you realize Kolby Allard hasn't been any better. This team is missing a fifth starter and they can't wait to get into the playoffs where they simply will not need one.
For now, the Phillies will trot out a starter that has 88 Stuff+, a 6.9% K-BB%, and a 6.34 FIP. The xFIP does give some hope at 5.09 but still, at best you're getting a replacement level starter against a Mets team that is seeing Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo get hot at the right time. at worst… yikes. Philly will likely need the big bats to show up tonight to compete for the opening game of this four game set.
The Phillies have performed notably worse on the road this season, 39-35 (.527), than they have at home, 52-25 (.675) and given the strength of schedule differences with the Dodgers, who are one game back from them and have two of three series left against the Colorado Rockies, will most likely finish as the second seed in the National League if they keep giving the ball to Taijuan Walker in late season games.
New York Mets Betting Preview: Expect Sevy To Deliver
The Amazin' Mets are back at it again. They installed a purple tribute seat to McDonald's Grimace character this week at Citi Field to commemorate the seven straight wins and 29-14 run through June and July that followed the mascot's ceremonial first pitch. Since installing the seat the Mets have won three straight, sweeping the Nationals at home to give them a big two game cushion over the Braves for a playoff berth.
It's a story that you truly could not have pitched to a board of writers, they would have told you it's far too unrealistic for a purple hamburger thief to propel the club with the highest payroll into playoff contention. But that's where we are. Every time Grimace shows up the Mets rattle off some wins.
Today should be another great chance for New York to add to their current streak. The Mets are handing the ball to Luis Severino, who has been a revelation for the New York rotation. After giving up 14 runs across three starts to start August, Sevvy has settled down and allowed one run or less in four of his last six starts.
One of the starts where he did falter, however, was his most recent, and it was against this same Phillies team. He gave up three runs in six innings while striking out just five. He did only allow three hits and a walk, though, and his stuff looked good. Now he gets to return home where he has combined to throw 23.2 IP and give up just two total runs to the Reds, Red Sox and Marlins in his last three at Citi Field, 21 strikeouts too.
With 10 games left to go and a big four game set opening up between these bitter rivals, I expect Luis Severino to deliver. Or, at least, give the Mets a very good chance to get an early lead over what Taijuan Walker is going to bring to the table. The Mets are without star short stop Fransisco Lindor, but the resurgence of Pete Alonso in the last week along with the fact that they've allowed just 13 runs in their last 9 home games gives me confidence in the home team tonight.
New York is 43-34 on the money line when playing at home, they're also 57-36 on the money line when Vegas makes them the favorite.
Phillies vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
The money line on this game opened at -134 at sits at -134 currently after an early move towards -150 before three separate, five cent buy backs over the course of the evening and morning. This could indicate sharp money on Philadelphia. The total opened at 7.5 with juice towards the over and subsequently moved up to 8 where it sits now, in an unsurprising move, these are good offenses and Walker's propensity to have a 4+ run outing is respected. The spread pricing, like the money line, saw a slight increase towards the Mets but is back near the opening price currently.
My prediction today is that Luis Severino continues is dominance at home and/or Taijuan Walker falters in his return to the starter role. We really only need one of those two things to happen to see the Mets take an early lead. Getting baffled by Walker in Philly for three innings in relief is not a precursor to struggling against him as a starter, I think New York gets out to an early lead and Severino does more than enough for them to cover the first five inning spread.
Pick: Mets F5 -0.5 +100 (Play to -115 | BetMGM)
Moneyline
The Phillies continue to struggle on the road, going 3-4-1 in their last 8 road series dating back to the start of August. They are also 12-17 on the money line when the underdog in the matchup, which happens rarely, but the Mets are the favorite today at home behind Severino. The market has its doubts still, and is respecting the lineup of the Phillies who have the offensive advantage while Lindor is on the mend. Both teams have won 6 of their last 10 contests, but it is the Mets who will look to extend their three game win streak.
Run Line (Spread)
The Phillies appear to lose by multiple runs fairly often when they struggle, or at least when they are expected to struggle. They are 10-19 ATS when priced as the underdog, or when they are getting the +1.5 runs, as they are today. Philly has also failed to cover in 7 of their last 10 games, meaning that they are underperforming expectations as both a favorite and a dog. My lean for the Run Line would be the Mets, Walker's floor performance is 4+ runs and a big lead early from an offense that has plated 20 in it's last two contests against sub par Nationals pitching.
Over/Under
The total at Citi Field is always a bit tough to figure out. It's a pitchers park but the Mets can score in bunches. So can the Phillies, for that matter. The park factors give us a low number of just 8 considering that these are two of the top ten MLB offenses by wRC+ in the last month (PHI
Phillies vs Mets Betting Trends
Phillies Betting Trends
- Phillies are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- Phillies are 34-40 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Phillies' last 5 games.
- The totals have gone OVER in 34 of Phillies' 78 last games at home.
MetsBetting Trends
- Mets are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Mets are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- Mets are 40-35 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Mets' last 5 games.
- The totals have gone OVER in 39 of Mets' 77 last games at home.
