PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
Happy Friday, everyone. After cashing in on last Friday’s prop parlay, I’m once again pairing two legs of MLB pitcher props for a nice plus-odds payout.
James Paxton Under 5.5 Strikeouts | Chris Bassitt 5+ Strikeouts
Reds vs. Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET) | Rays vs. Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)
Paxton has only registered 22 strikeouts in 38.1 innings pitched thus far. He’s remained under this line in each of his seven starts. In fact, he’s only reached five punch-outs once – his first start of the season.
While his 5-0 record and 2.58 ERA look good, his underlying metrics (5.89 xERA, 41.7% hard hit rate, .241 BABIP) have the Big Maple as a candidate for massive regression.
And he’s really not missing bats, with diminished velocity on all of his pitches, leading to his lowest called + swinging strike rate of his career (24%).
The Reds have struggled against righties this season, but versus southpaws their 22.3% strikeout rate is right around league average. 10-of-16 lefty starters have stayed under this line against Cincinnati this season.
Bassitt has only cleared this line in half of his eight starts, but I see that as a product of some tough matchups (Dodgers, Padres, Royals, Astros).
The Rays have a 23.7% strikeout rate against righties this season, and it bumps up to 24.7% on the road – the seventh-highest mark in the league. In fact, 12-of-15 righty starters have notched at least five strikeouts when pitching in their home ballpark against Tampa.
Bassitt was excellent in Toronto last season (24% K%, and 5+ strikeouts in 13-of-17 starts) – I expect him to have his way with the Rays tonight.
