Rangers vs Orioles Odds | Sunday Night Baseball Prediction
| Texas Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -145 | 9 -110o / -110u | +143 |
| Baltimore Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +122 | 9 -110o / -110u | -170 |
The Texas Rangers finally woke up at the plate Saturday night, but it ultimately came in another losing effort to extend their slide to six games. There should be room for optimism on Sunday, however, against left-hander Cole Irvin.
That's not to say the Rangers will have an easy time here, either, considering their lefty — veteran Andrew Heaney — profiles poorly for a start against the Orioles in hitter-friendly Camden Yards.
Can either lineup rise above the other here, or is the total in play in the final game of the week? Let's get into my Rangers vs Orioles betting preview and ESPN Sunday Night Baseball prediction on the over/under.
Texas Rangers
It's been a brutal season at the dish for the defending champions. They sit 24th in MLB in wRC+, hitting just .237 with a measly .135 Isolated Power. That lack of pop has been the biggest differentiator this year, and while the strikeouts have come down a bit, so have the walks.
That's not to say much has changed with the way this team hits, however, given the Rangers are once again in the top 10 of the league in fly-ball rate and have simply converted a much lower number of those batted balls into home runs. We're beginning to see a slight turn in their fortune lately with an elevated ISO of over 10 points, and their home run-to-fly ball ratio is up from 9.9% on the season to 10.7% over the past week.
We'll get into why that might make this a good spot to believe in the offense below, considering the pitcher going for Baltimore and the park this game will be played at — which has been friendlier to pitchers over the last few years than it's historically been but has ranked eighth in Park Factor for home runs this year.
On the hill, things could get a little dicey. Heaney is once again just skating by as a big-league caliber arm with a 4.17 ERA and 4.35 Expected ERA, allowing even more expected hits this season and posting an Expected Slugging that's almost 40 points higher than average.
He was already a tough man to trust last season, and while he's walked fewer batters to give him a slightly-improved xERA, opponents are doing far more damage on contact and that should make for a sticky situation against an offensive juggernaut.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles just keep on hitting, posting the second-best wRC+ in baseball over the past two weeks thanks in large part to a bodacious .255 ISO and excellence in limiting strikeouts. They lead the league in home run-to-fly ball ratio this season and have only improved upon that mark at nearly 20% in the past 14 days. So, in striking out at an even-better rate, they should feel good about their chances against an arm who allows a ton of fly balls and would likely look even worse had he not owned a palatable 22.3% punchout rate entering this start.
Baltimore has also enjoyed life at home this season, hitting .261 at Camden Yards as opposed to .250 on the road with a slight increase in slugging. The Orioles have also mashed lefties, slashing .266/.328/.470 to give them a 25-point jump in OPS in the split.
There would appear to be nothing stopping this offense from going out and producing Sunday night, but it may be asked to do a lot with Irvin on the bump. The left-hander sports a solid 3.74 ERA entering this one, but with a boisterous 4.97 xERA, he's been incredibly fortunate to have one of the best defenses in baseball behind him to save him further trouble.
That said, the Orioles have fallen to 21st in Outs Above Average this month on defense and will not have the opportunity to make plays on fly balls that are headed for the seats. Irvin has allowed just nine home runs through 77 innings, but with an extremely poor .492 xSLG and a deadly combination of fly balls and quality contact against him, I'm not certain his numbers will continue to hold up.
Irvin's barrel rate has been trending up for the past four seasons, going up 2.6 percentage points to 9.6% in 2022 before rising to 10.8% last year and sitting at 11.6% this season. His fly-ball rate has sat right around 30% over the past three years, leaving the league average of 23.6% in the dust, so it would seem a team that can put the ball in the air would be troublesome.
Rangers vs Orioles
Betting Pick & Prediction
Texas continues to be incredibly hopeful for home runs given its fly-ball ways at the plate, and it finally found a breakthrough Saturday at Camden Yards with four long-balls. Given Irvin's profile, you'd expect a continued aerial assault out of the visitors here. With the quality at which balls are being struck against him, I think the Rangers' offense should look surprisingly potent for a second straight night.
If you're looking toward the Over, the Rangers' prolonged slump is really the only thing that would give you pause. I think they find themselves in a great situation Sunday night, and Heaney promises to serve up some loud contact against the powerhouse Orioles.
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