The Minnesota Twins host the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday, May 1. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SN1 and MLB.TV.
The Blue Jays are favored by -106 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Twins are -110 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Blue Jays vs Twins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Blue Jays vs Twins Prediction, Picks
- Blue Jays vs Twins Pick: Josh Bell Over 0.5 Home Runs (+630)
My Blue Jays vs Twins best bet is on Josh Bell to hit a home run. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Twins Odds, Betting Line, Over/Under
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +154 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -105 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -115 |
- Blue Jays vs Twins Moneyline: Blue Jays ML -105, Twins ML -115
- Blue Jays vs Twins Over/Under: 8.5
- Blue Jays vs Twins Run Line: Blue Jays -1.5 (+154), Twins +1.5 (-190)
Blue Jays vs Twins Projected Starting Pitchers
| Patrick Corbin (TOR) | Stat | Simeon Woods-Richardson (MIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 0-4 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 3.72 / 5.89 | ERA / xERA | 6.30 / 4.81 |
| 4.06 / 4.05 | FIP / xFIP | 6.03 / 5.77 |
| 12.7 | K-BB% | 1.5 |
| 42.6 | GB% | 34.9 |
| .302 | BABIP | .314 |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 87 |
| 107 | Location+ | 95 |
Blue Jays vs Twins Pick, MLB Betting Preview
I'm on Twins first baseman Josh Bell to hit a home run tonight against the Blue Jays' Patrick Corbin, who is very prone to giving up long balls.
On our MLB Payoff Pitch podcast, my partner Derek Carty spoke a little bit more in depth against who Bell will face — Corbin:
Corbin has been so bad for so long that I think people have maybe missed and certainly projections have maybe missed that he's been a little bit better this season. He hasn't been a lot better, but if you look at the BATcast, which is my stuff model, his stuff expected ERA is 4.43. That's the best it's been since 2020. I just think he's a little bit better than reputation.
And while I agree with that notion, this is the reason I've avoided Corbin in the strikeout market, even though there's a slight edge on our Action PRO prop projections.
Instead, I'm fading Corbin in a different way — by backing Bell.
Yes, Bell hasn't homered since early April, but he's facing the right matchup. And even though Corbin has been a bit better this season, that doesn't mean he isn't home-run prone.
Pick: Josh Bell Over 0.5 Home Runs (+630)
