Grizzlies vs. Warriors Odds & Betting Predictions - April 16, 2025

Small middle.

🔑 Grizzlies ML +245 (DraftKings) 2u This value is just way too good to pass up on. My model gives this a B- grade and calculates a +187 line. 90% of the money is on GS but the big money bets are coming in on Memphis. I ride with Ja

System free play for today!

6.05% ev

Since Wells got hurt, Vince Williams took over the starting spot, but Pippen has seen the increase in minutes. L2 w/o Wells, Pippen has played 32 and 31 MIN and both were big games for playoff seeding. Even though he came off the bench, he was closing halves with the starters. In their last game vs. GSW, Pippen closed the game with the starters and Wells was active. In the two games w/o Wells, Pippen has recorded 20 and 18 PA. LG vs. GSW Pippen had 12 PA but in just 23 MIN. Since the coaching change, Pippen is AVG 0.66 PA per minute. If he see's just 25 MIN this game, he should record ~16.5 PA. In games he plays 25+ MIN w/ Ja/Bane/JJJ, he's over in 3/3 w/ 24, 20, 18 PA. I do think the minutes should be there for Pippen, since GSW is very guard/wing heavy. Down the stretch of their last game, they opted to go with Pippen over Wells as Curry's primary defender, which is a great sign now that Wells is out. Williams is another good defender for them but they've been going with Pippen down the stretch over Williams in two big games already.

7.94% ev

Tailing @PropBomb

High-stakes game tonight with no margin for error — expect short leashes for role players, especially if they aren't contributing on both ends. One player I think gets his minutes squeezed is Buddy Hield. Hield has been averaging 9.7 PPG in 20.9 minutes over his last 15 games. But when you filter out non-playoff teams and only include games where Curry also played, his numbers dip to 7.8 PPG in 18.4 minutes, failing to score more than 9 points vs. LAC, PHX, DEN, LAL, ATL, and MEM — the team he faces tonight. The only outlier? 20 points vs. Houston — a game we were on the under, where Hield came out hot (2/2 from deep) and Curry was constantly blitzed by Rockets defenders. That won’t be the case tonight. Since Memphis adjusted their defensive schemes — switching on ball-handlers and playing drop with Edey — they’ve drastically improved their 3-point defense. They now allow just 8.7 spot up threes per game (22nd most), compared to 13.3/game (2nd most) previously under Taylor Jenkins in March. Beyond the shooting matchup, Hield’s defense remains a liability. Memphis will play fast, and constantly hunting mismatches, and Hield is a clear target. In their last meeting, Hield played just 4 minutes in the 4th, but that was with Gary Payton II out. In the most recent game vs. LAC, with Payton II back, Hield got zero 4th-quarter run. I’ve got Hield projected for 16.7 minutes, and books are hanging -180 on under 3+ 3PM. In games with Curry, Payton II, and Jimmy active where Buddy played 16-20 minutes and doesn't hit 3+ 3PM, he is averaging 4.8 PPG, failing to hit 9 points in 6 of 6 games. With Kerr staggering Curry’s minutes and keeping non-overlap low (where Hield thrives), the upside just isn’t there. #PlayerProps @everyone

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Joe beat me to the Edey angle but I still like it here

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IT’S 3PM SOMEWHERE….ELSE!!!

Warriors allow 105.0 PPG in last 5 games. Grizz shooting 35.7% from 3, GS holding teams to 33.5%. Warriors at 112.5 PPG at home — slower tempo. Play-in pressure means longer possessions, fewer transition looks. Last matchup: MEM 44/92 FG, GS 42/99 — volume without efficiency. Warriors D allows just 46.7% FG at home. Grizz 17th in 2P%, under 78% FT. Both teams stall late — MEM down to 28.5 PPG in 4Q. Expect grind-out buckets, fewer fouls, playoff-style possessions. Under is 6-2 in GS last 8 at home. MEM 24-16-1 to Under on the road. Slower pace, fatigue from tighter rotations, and playoff urgency lean Under.

1.69% ev