Suns vs. Nuggets Odds
| Suns | +4.5 |
| Nuggets | -4.5 |
| Total | 228.5 |
| Date | Monday, May 1 |
| Time | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
*Odds via BetMGM as of Monday afternoon.
Has anybody seen Chris Paul? The star point guard was a non-factor during the Phoenix Suns' 125-107 Game 1 loss to the Denver Nuggets.
Paul has been the straw that stirs the drink for the Suns, along with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker.
He scored 11 points and had just five assists in Game 1. That assist total was the lowest for Paul so far in the NBA Playoffs.
But will that continue in Game 2 between the Nuggets and Suns on Monday night?
Here's what our proprietary betting models say: there's an edge on Paul's player props at BetMGM. And the prognostication comes in the form of dishing out dimes.
The models consider quantitative and qualitative factors from every angle — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more to come up with a fair value line for every NBA player prop on the market.
Chris Paul Player Prop Prediction, Projection
The algorithms expect Paul to get more involved in the offense if the Suns want any sort of chance of beating the Nuggets.
The models think Paul is ripe for positive regression in the assist category. During the first round of the playoffs, Paul recorded at least seven assists in every game; he had two performances with nine and 11 assists. He averaged 8.2 assists per game in the first round vs. the Clippers and 8.9 assists during the regular season.
Paul is projected to put up 9.46 assists on Monday night. BetMGM has his assist total currently at 8.5 with +105 toward the over and -120 toward the under.
This pick has a roughly 10% betting edge. Essentially, you're receiving a 10% discount from the true fair value price of that line. Another way to think about it: the second you press submit on that wager, you'll be receiving 10% in the expected value.
Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same unit sizing for each individual bet.
Chris Paul Best Player Prop: Over 8.5 Assists (+105).
