Let's preview Friday night's game between the Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings with our Warriors vs Kings betting picks and prediction for today.
Kings vs Warriors Prediction, Picks Today
We’re getting a Round 1 playoff rematch early in the season as the Warriors travel down to Sacramento to take on the Kings. Can the Dubs bounce back from their home defeat in the season opener or will the Kings be too motivated for revenge here?
Let’s get to our Warriors vs Kings prediction and pick.
Pick: Kings -1.5 | Play to -2.5
Golden State started the season with a 108-104 loss to the Suns. The Warriors shot poorly, didn’t defensive rebound, missed Steph Curry sporadically due to foul trouble and still barely lost the game.
The Warriors had an effective field goal percentage of 41% (fourth percentile), shot just 24% from three and 58.3% at the rim. They allowed the Suns to rebound 38.5% of their misses (96th percentile). Curry played just 31 minutes in the game due to ticky-tacky fouls he kept committing.
This team didn’t play great, but that should be expected when they are missing their second-best player Draymond Green. Green is a defensive system onto himself and he also is essential to the Dubs offense in the pick-and-roll/short-roll game. He will be out again here so the Warriors will likely struggle on the defensive end once again.
Offensively, they are bound to improve on their shooting woes. They did indicate an ability to take care of the ball on Opening Night as they had a turnover rate of just 11% (93rd percentile). You can credit Chris Paul with a lot of that improvement in the turnover department. There is going to be positive shooting regression tonight, but I’m not sure it will matter unless they find a way to contain De'Aaron Fox's dribble penetration.
Meanwhile, the Kings absolutely lit up the Jazz in their opener, scoring 130 points and drilling 19 threes in the process. Their shot quality was impressive as they managed to attempt 48% of their shots from deep and shot 19/51 (38%) on those looks.
I faded the Kings against the Warriors in the playoffs last year because I was worried about how they’d perform in the half court — alongside a multitude of other reasons — but they are undeniably an elite regular-season offense. They have a high regular-season floor because their offense can attack opponents in a variety of ways. The Kings can beat opponents in transition with Fox’s elite speed and handle leading the way; in the half court with Domantas Sabonis acting as a hub in DHO’s; or in crunch time with the Fox/Sabonis pick and roll, as proven last year when Fox won the Clutch Player of the Year award.
Sacramento boasts a better offense than the Suns currently, and I expect the Kings to score in bunches here.
The Warriors don't have anyone to match up with Fox unless they want to play Gary Payton II the entire game. Additionally, Kevon Looney did a terrific job on Sabonis last year, but we also saw him periodically rest and allow Green to guard him. That option won’t be available to Steve Kerr here and I expect Sabonis to get some mismatches. The Kings are just highly comfortable with their system and should be able to generate great shots all night against this Warrior defense.
Kings vs Warriors Odds, Pick
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 238 -108o / -112u | +128 |
| Kings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 238 -108o / -112u | -152 |
The Warriors are still trying to adjust to playing alongside Chris Paul and Klay Thompson, plus Andrew Wiggins did not look like reliable second option to Curry in the opener.
Meanwhile, the Kings look like they haven’t missed a beat from last season and they have more continuity year-over-year. Continuity isn’t everything, but you can make an argument that they also have more talent than Golden State with Draymond Green out of the lineup.
There are too many question marks with this Warriors team to make me feel comfortable backing them on the road as a pick'em. I think the Kings deserve to be closer to -2.5 or -3 here so I will recommend taking them at -1.5, and I'd still play this at -2.5 if you're looking to get a bet in on this game, but only if you really want to place a bet; it would be a pass for me.
That's especially true now that this line is Kings -3 across the board. If you do want a better value play, than, I'd recommend taking a look at my colleague Joe Dellera's NBA player prop today for Domantas Sabonis.
