Hawks vs. 76ers Prediction, Picks | Best Bet for Friday
Here's everything you need to know about Hawks vs. 76ers on Friday, Dec. 7 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The 76ers (13-7) returned home in better spirits after salvaging a win in the final game of a three-game road trip. Philadelphia hung on for a 131-126 victory over the Wizards, snapping a two-game losing streak.
Next up for the 76ers is a Hawks team that's winless in their past two games despite back-to-back 30-point efforts from point guard Trae Young. The injury report could become a factor in this game, with Young listed as questionable with an undisclosed illness.
Even if Young manages to play, I have doubts about this Atlanta unit that, through 20 games, sits two games under .500 at 9-11 despite a positive adjusted net rating of +1.1 points per Dunks and Threes.
Let's get to our Hawks vs. 76ers prediction and pick.
Hawks vs. 76ers Prediction
Pick: 76ers -7
Atlanta's decision to fire former head coach Nate McMillan remains dubious, given his 99-80 record over three seasons. Quin Snyder replaced McMillan, and while it's still early into his tenure, the Hawks haven't exactly hit the ground running with a 19-21 mark under their new head coach.
Nobody would deny that the Hawks are a talented group offensively. Per Cleaning the Glass, they sit fifth in efficiency with 119.4 points per 100 possessions. However, Atlanta's bugaboo continues to be on the defensive end of the floor, where they rank 25th (allowing 117.9 points per 100 possessions).
Last season, Atlanta finished the year 21st in defensive efficiency, but if we isolate its performance from when Snyder took over, it dropped to 23rd in the league. If the Hawks are ever going to turn the corner, they'll need to commit to their defensive responsibilities fully.
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Hawks Betting Outlook
The perception is the Hawks look more like a team set on appeasing their star player in Young. He's already played for three different head coaches in his sixth season.
As the team's best player, you'd like to see Young set the tone for the Hawks defensively to help establish an identity.
According to NBA.com, out of 27 guards that average at least 34 minutes per game, Young ranks 23rd in defensive rating (116.3). Just one spot below Young is teammate Dejounte Murray, who has a rating of 117.9.
There's almost the feeling of a prevailing endemic within this Hawks locker room that's in desperate need of a culture change. But whether that can come from the coaches or players remains to be seen.
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76ers Betting Outlook
Philadelphia comes into this matchup in decent form without any players listed on the injury report. Kelly Oubre Jr. returned ahead of schedule following a rib injury from a traffic incident roughly four weeks ago.
The 76ers jumped out to a 7-1 start, with Oubre averaging 16.3 points per game. In 11 games without him, Philadelphia went just 5-6. Oubre signed with the 76ers on a one-year veteran's minimum worth $2.9 million.
Considering that he's coming off a year in which he averaged 20.3 points in 48 games before a season-ending injury, he probably could've commanded an even bigger payday. However, the chance to play with the reigning MVP, Joel Embiid, attracted Oubre to the 76ers.
Following a 112-100 victory over the Suns on Nov. 4, Oubre spoke to reporters about Embiid's impact on his decision to sign with Philadelphia.
"Although I didn't talk to him about it, he had a lot of influence on it," Oubre said. "Because he's the best big man in the NBA…That opens up a lot of shots and cuts and drives for me so I think that definitely played a big role in it."
It doesn't hurt that Oubre and Embiid share a connection, given that both played their college ball at Kansas under Bill Self. As improbable as it may seem, this signing for under $3 million could hold the key to the 76ers season.
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Hawks vs. 76ers Picks, Odds
| Hawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9 -112 | 234.5 -110o / -110u | +320 |
| 76ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9 -108 | 234.5 -110o / -110u | -410 |
The Oubre angle is intriguing because his return gives me greater confidence to back Philadelphia in this price range and lay the seven points at Caesars. This line opened with the 76ers at -6.5, and it's been bet up as high as -8 at some sportsbooks.
After running the numbers, my model makes Philadelphia a -7.03 favorite. However, I think it's worth considering that if Young plays, he might not be at full strength. There's also the chance that he's inactive for the game.
If we can anticipate Young's absence, then the 76ers offer even greater value at the current number.
This season, Philadelphia ranks fourth in margin of victory at 6.9 points. And according to our Action Labs database, in games where the 76ers open laying -6.5 or more points and close no higher than a -10 point favorite, they're a whopping 82-56-3 (59.4) against the spread for 21.6 units.
That's all the confidence I need to lay the seven points with the 76ers at home.
Pick: 76ers -7
