Heat vs. Nuggets Game 1 Odds
| Nuggets | -8.5 (-115) |
| Heat | +8.5 (-105) |
| Total | 218.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Date | Thursday, June 1 |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
*Odds via BetMGM as of Thursday afternoon.
The NBA Finals tip off tonight with Game 1 featuring the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat.
The Heat are massive underdogs in the series at +310 odds at BetMGM. The Heat will rely heavily on Eastern Conference Finals MVP Jimmy Butler to give them a chance in the series.
All of the talk surrounding this series tends to be about two-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic. However, Butler will have a chip on his shoulder to prove why he is also one of the best players in the league.
Butler has elevated his game in the playoffs. The sharpshooter averaged 22.9 points in the regular season and is currently averaging 28.5 points so far in the playoffs.
Our algorithm has identified an edge on a Butler player prop tonight at BetMGM. The prognostication expects Butler to outperform his expected point total.
It's a bet on the over.
Our models consider quantitative and qualitative factors for every angle of this game — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more — to come up with a fair value line for every NBA player prop on the market.
Jimmy Butler Player Prop Prediction, Projection
The algorithms expect Butler to outperform his totals for points tonight.
The models think Butler's point total for Game 1 is way too low. BetMGM has set Butler's point total for 27.5 with -110 on the over and -110 on the under.
Butler went over that total in three of four games against the Celtics where he took 15 or more shots. It is fair to assume Butler will have to take a high volume of shots if the Heat want to have success. In games where Butler took fewer than 15 shots, there were players who stepped up on the Heat such as Caleb Martin, but our models are suggesting Butler's volume will increase.
The Heat have won all three Game 1s so far this playoffs on the road. In those three games, Butler has scored 85 points for an average of 28.3 points.
Our algorithms like the matchup against the Nuggets and predict Butler will score 31.2 points tonight. That's good enough for an edge above 13% on his point total.
Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same size unit for each individual bet.
Pick: Jimmy Butler Over 27.5 Points (-110)
