Lakers vs Heat Prediction, Picks for Monday, Nov. 6
Here's everything you need to know about Lakers vs Heat on Monday, Nov. 6 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
Does this have enough of the same guys from the 2020 NBA Finals to call it a rematch?
Or is this now the Gabe Vincent Bowl because he defected from the Miami Heat to the Los Angeles Lakers after being lowballed this off-season?
Well, Vincent is struggling, and also out for multiple weeks, so probably neither?
In any event, this is a fairly interesting affair as far as NBA games played on November 6 go: Two of the final four teams left standing who are desperately clinging onto the cores to extend, what they believe, is a title window.
Let's get to our prediction and pick for the night.
Lakers vs Heat Prediction
Outlook on the Lakers
We're only working with six-game sample sizes, so there's only but so much that's concrete, if anything at all.
The Lakers are 3-3 and are coming off a Saturday near 20-point loss to hipster NBA Twitter's favorite rising team, the Orlando Magic. (I like them, too, for what it's worth.)
Aside from the aforementioned Vincent, the Lakers will be without Rui Hachimura due to a concussion, Jalen Hood-Schifino is still recovery from a knee injury, and Jarred Vanderbilt is nursing a heel issue.
Anthony Davis is the best player on the team, amassing 26.3 points, 13.0 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 3.7 blocks per game so far this season while shooting 55/43/88 splits. He's also, at least for now, healthy!
LeBron James is far under his absurdly listed 27.1 points per game prop for the season, but is still better than like any 38-year-old ever, sitting at 24.5 points, 9.2 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game on 56/36/61. Yeah, that 61 isn't ideal, and it's on six free throw attempts per game, but expect him to get to the 70s from the line.
D'Angelo Russell has begun the season on a hot streak with 18.0 points and 6.5 assists per game, by far the team's third most productive player, although he's shooting just 43 percent from the field and 27.5 percent from three.
Austin Reaves, who is fast losing ground to Herro and Chet Holmgren in the "Best White American NBA Player Power Rankings" that Cooper Flagg will eventually take over, is off to a disappointing 12.5 points, 4.0 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game on 39/29/80 shooting.
Outlook on the Heat
The Miami Heat are 2-4, and not a good type of 2-4 either.
Their schedule hasn't been that difficult, their two wins were by single digits against teams we expect to live near the bottom of the Eastern Conference, and their fourth quarters — a calling card of their 2023 run to the NBA Finals — have been just disgusting to watch.
In their season opener against the Detroit Pistons, they won by one point despite having a 19-point lead with 9:07 left.
Against the Wizards, though it was more of a fake comeback, they led by 25 points with 6:38 left before allowing 15 straight points and eventually winning by seven. (The Heat were 8.5-point favorites by tip-off and 2022 second round pick Ryan Rollins hit a three with eight seconds left for the heroic backdoor cover.)
The Heat otherwise have lost by no more than eight points in three of their four games, which were in Boston, Milwaukee, and home against Brooklyn. Their only lopsided defeat was against the Minnesota Timberwolves, and Jimmy Butler didn't play.
Speaking of Butler, he's logging 17.2 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game in his five appearances on 40/33/83 shooting. It would statistically be his worst season since 2013-14, but it's November 6 and he doesn't care about basketball yet. (Either that or his old… but I don't think it's that yet.)
Herro is actually leading the team in scoring, sitting at 25.8 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists per contest on 45/45/89 shooting.
Bam Adebayo is up to 21.4 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.2 blocks per contest.
Against the Lakers, they'll be without Caleb Martin due to a lingering knee issue.
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Lakers vs Heat Picks, Odds
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | o222.5 -110 | -102 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | u222.5 -110 | -118 |
Here are bets I'm monitoring for tonight:
- Tyler Herro over 4.5 rebounds (-155 via DraftKings). This was also on our best bets file for today, so I'll keep it tight here. Herro is a good guard rebounder and has hit this over in four of his last five. I like this up to 5.0 and possible 5.5 if it elevates before tip-off.
- Lakers 4Q spread -0.5 (+100 via FanDuel). The Heat just haven't been good in fourth quarters. The Pistons outscored them by seven in Miami. The Celtics by nine in Boston. The Timberwolves by nine in Minnesota. The Nets by 12 and the Wizards by 13, both in Miami. They only got the better of the Bucks in Milwaukee by 16 in the fourth, the clear outlier so far. They'll eventually do their Heat sh*t and get it right… maybe… but it's too early in the calendar for that.
- Staying away from the moneyline for the game itself, but I can be talked in and out of both teams. There's a reason why it's essentially a pick em. But I do plan on live betting a side during the game — the second half if it's close — and I recommend the same for others.
