Warriors vs. Lakers Game 4 Odds
| Lakers | -2.5 |
| Warriors | +2.5 |
| Total | 228.5 (-105 / -115) |
| Date | Monday, May 8 |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
*Odds via BetMGM as of Tuesday afternoon.
LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers have a 2-1 lead over the Golden State Warriors.
Although James and star teammate Anthony Davis have had some solid performances through three games, it has been much more of a team effort from the Lakers rather than relying solely on their stars. They have each averaged 22 points through the first three games of the series.
Our algorithm has identified an edge on a LeBron James player prop at BetMGM tonight. The prognostication isn't expecting much from the King during Game 4.
In fact, it's a bet on an under.
Our models consider quantitative and qualitative factors from every angle of this game — including rest, matchups, stylistic differences, lingering injuries, history and more to come up with a fair value line for every NBA player prop on the market.
LeBron James Player Prop Prediction, Projection
The algorithms expect James to fall short of his expected point total.
The models think James' total point total for Game 4 is way too high. BetMGM has set the total for points tonight at 26.5 with -115 on both sides. That is the best price on the under in the market.
Although 26.5 points may seem low on the surface, James only eclipsed that mark once during the series against the Grizzlies, and that was in the Game 2 loss. He averaged just 22.2 points during that series. In the series against the Warriors, it has been more of the same. He dropped 21 points in Game 1, 23 points in Game 2 and 22 points in Game 3.
After averaging 28 points during the regular season, it appears James believes he gives his team the best chance to win by not scoring as much.
The model predicts James will score 24.17 points tonight. That's good enough for about a 15% betting edge on the under.
Do keep in mind that these algorithms work best when you wager with the same unit sizing for each individual bet.
Pick: LeBron James Under 26.5 Points (-115)
