Nuggets vs Mavericks Prediction, Picks Tonight | In-Season Tourney Best Bets
Here's everything you need to know about Nuggets vs Mavericks on Friday, Nov. 3 including our expert prediction and betting picks for tonight.
Luka Doncic will travel to Denver to take on a Nuggets team coming off of a rare loss. Will the Mavericks have enough firepower to overcome a focused Nuggets squad?
Let's break down our Nuggets vs Mavericks prediction and pick tonight.
Editor's Note: The Athletic's Shams Charania reported that Kyrie Irving will be available tonight, meaning our expert is officially backing the over for his Nuggets vs. Mavericks pick.
The Nuggets haven’t missed a beat, starting the year 4-1 and ranking second in adjusted net-rating thus far. It’s clear that the Nuggets are a level above the rest of the West and the only team in the entire league that appears to reside within the same universe as the Celtics, who rank first in net-rating.
Denver should have a consistent advantage here with Jokic in the post as the Mavericks don’t have a ton of reliable Centers. Rookie Dereck Lively has started the year strong but I fear he doesn’t have the strength to defend Jokic on the block. Besides Lively, the only other bigs who have gotten minutes are Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber. Neither of these guys are capable of guarding Jokic one-on-one.
I also think that Aaron Gordon should be able to feast against these Maverick wings. He will likely be matched up against Josh Green, Grant Williams, or Derrick Jones Jr.; and similar to Jokic, none of these guys have the size or strength to dislodge AG off of his cuts and duck-ins. Expect Michael Porter Jr. to get off a ton of threes as he will likely be guarded by a smaller wing or guard for most of the game.
This Maverick defense should be a breath of fresh air for the Nuggets as they go from facing one of the longest defenses in the NBA in the Timberwolves to facing perhaps the smallest rotation in the league. Expect the Nuggets' starters to dominate offensively.
The Mavericks are off to a 4-0 start, but they haven’t played as difficult of a schedule as the Nuggets. They rank fifth in net-rating but when adjusting for schedule, dunksandthrees.com ranks them 12th in adjusted net-rating. Still, you can’t ask for more than 4-0, and the Mavericks have won these games without their second best player Kyrie Irving.
Kyrie is questionable for this one with a left foot sprain, so monitor the injury report. Irving would obviously bolster this offense if he is able to go. The offense has been the key to the Mavs success as they rank second in offensive rating (121.4).
Luka has been remarkable averaging 33.8 PPG, 10.5 RPG, and 9.8 APG on 51.1% from the field and 42.2% from three. He is the clear co-favorite for MVP with his friend Nikola Jokic. The Mavericks haven’t changed their offensive process much as it is still heavily predicated on surrounding Luka with shooters and letting him create for himself and others. Dallas leads the league in three point attempt rate (46.1%) and they rank third in three point accuracy (41.5%). At 41.5%, that number is likely unsustainable moving forward but it is certainly encouraging to see their big off-season signing Grant Williams shooting 55% from deep.
This outlier shooting will not continue for the entire season but the Mavs process has been good as they continue to get up quality threes. I think this offense will eventually stagnate and this may be a spot where they struggle as the Nuggets have actually been doing a good job of running shooters off the three point line, ranking third in opponent three point attempt rate allowed (30.5%). If the Nuggets can force guys like Grant Williams, Josh Green, and Tim Hardaway Jr. to put the ball on the floor, the Mavs offense will struggle.
Nuggets vs Mavericks Picks, Odds
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 225 -110 / -110 | +230 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 225 -110 / -110 | -280 |
With Irving able to go, I'm going to pivot from the Nuggets to cover towards an over play, as I love the outlook for this Nuggets offense, and I think the Mavericks have enough offensive creation with Irving to get us to this number.
