NBA Best Bets Today | Monday, Dec. 11
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bulls vs. Bucks
By Jim Turvey
I'm not often a SGP bettor, but for Monday, there's a correlated play that I really like that is still getting +220 at BetMGM.
Matt Moore talked on Buckets today about how the Bucks went from absolute locks against their division opponents in years past, to 0-5 against the spread in those games against the teams that know you best this first season under Adrian Griffin.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Bulls have been playing some of their best basketball since Zach LaVine left the lineup, and Coby White, in particular, has been doing some of the most damage. White is averaging 24.3/6.5/6.0 in the four games since LaVine went out, including 23 points on 20 field goal attempts against these same Bucks the first game LaVine was out.
The Bulls won that game, and while I don't know if they'll repeat that exact result, White is just about the perfect guard to shred this incredibly poor Bucks backcourt defense, so pairing the Bulls catching 11.5 and White to get to 20 points (which he has done in six of his last nine games since seeing his minutes load increase), is a great way to attack a SGP on Monday.
Pick: Bulls +11.5 and Coby White over 19.5 points
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Pistons vs. Pacers
Killian Hayes is averaging 16.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.8 assists over his last four games, where he's shooting 58 percent from the field and 44 percent from three.
Hayes has gone over 12.5 points in three of his last four, and the only under was 12 exactly. The overs were all against quality NBA defenses in Orlando, in New York, and home against Cleveland.
I'm not sure if Hayes is making a leap or somebody gotta get these buckets on Detroit, but he's been starting, getting usage, and has been productive on this recent run with no signs of slowing down largely out of necessity. The Pacers pace will allow for opportunity that Hayes should take advantage of, even if the Pistons get whooped.
Pick: Killian Hayes over 12.5 points (-110)
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Timberwolves vs. Pelicans
By Joe Dellera
The Pelicans were destroyed by the Lakers in the In-Season Tournament Semi-Final game and this should be a bounce back spot for them. However, given the matchup against the Timberwolves, I think they are overvalued.
On the season, the Pelicans are just 21st in Net Rating (-0.8) compared to the Timberwolves who are 2nd (+7.9), per Basketball Reference. While the Pelicans have dealt with a variety of different injuries and finally are relatively whole, their starting lineup of McCollum, Ingram, Jones, Zion, and Valanciunas has a -9.5 Net Rating.
This is a team that has struggled to solidify their identity. Compare this to the Wolves, who may be without Anthony Edwards (hip – Questionable), but have been dynamic throughout the season on the defensive side of the ball. The Wolves have the league's best defense, and may even return both Jaden McDaniels (ankle – Questionable) and Jordan McLaughlin (knee – Questionable). This defense is anchored by Rudy Gobert, and they have excelled at protecting the paint which is where the Pelicans prefer to score. Considering the style of defense Minnesota plays, I envision the Pelicans struggling to find consistent offense in this spot.
I'll gladly take the Timberwolves with the points where they are well rested and have proven themselves to be the better and more consistent team throughout the season.
Pick: Timberwolves +3.5
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Spurs vs. Rockets
These two teams played an OT thriller in October, in Victor Wembanyama's second NBA game. Wemby put on a show and proved what all the pre-draft hype was about, dropping 21 points and 12 rebounds with three steals and three blocks. The Spurs outlasted the Rockets 126-122 and it seemed like the young Spurs might make a splash this season with the young Frenchman at the helm. However, the Spurs haven't won a game since Nov. 5 and while Wemby has shown flashes of things to come, it will take time before they make that leap from fun, young team, to serious trouble-maker.
But that's exactly what the Houston Rockets have done this season under Ime Udoka–taken the leap. Houston is 10-9 and are eighth in defense. Their offense can be a struggle, but they still have a positive Adjusted Net Rating (+.6), according to Dunks and Threes. The Rockets have been a different team at home (9-1) compared to on the road (1-8), and the Spurs have been abysmal no matter where they play. This matchup is just a case of two teams at very different levels of ability.
The Rockets are the fourth best team against the spread (12-5-2), while the Spurs are third-worst (8-13). The Spurs caught the Rockets in a bad situation earlier this season and I think this game will be a blowout. I took the Rockets at -8 but I like them all the way down to -10.5.
Pick: Rockets -8
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Mavericks vs. Grizzlies
By Jim Turvey
The Mavericks and Grizzlies face off on Monday is a game that I'll be looking towards the under.
The Grizzlies, although they have been a far cry from what most of us expected this season, their defense has climbed throughout the season, currently sitting 10th, per Cleaning the Glass. It's been steady improvement on that end, with them sporting the 7th best defense in the past two weeks.
However, it's the other side of this bet that makes me feel even better. The Mavericks offense has slipped in recent weeks from their lofty pedestal of 3rd overall for the season as a whole, to 10th in the last two weeks. On the flip side, their defense has actually tightened up a bit, ranking 13th in the past two weeks compared to 23rd for the season as a whole.
The team will also be without Kyrie Irving for the time being, a massive boon for the under, given his offensive abilities and defensive, well, lack of abilities (or interest).
I would play this to under 225.
Pick: Under 227.5
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Bulls vs. Bucks
By Joe Dellera
The Bulls continue to be without Zach LaVine and one of the primary beneficiaries of that has been Nikola Vucevic. Vucevic jumps from 15.4 points to 18.4 points and has had a clear uptick in his usage in the games without LaVine this season.
Additionally, he has a good matchup on Monday night against Brook Lopez. He's exceeded his 33.5 PRA line in seven of his last ten regular season matchups against Lopez and both games this season. He's exceeded this line in five straight matchups and he's been very stable in all three stats with a double double in 8/10 as well.
Part of the reason for this is Vucevic has seen his 3 point attempts rise against Lopez due to the defensive scheme the Bucks have played and his 3s are a shot the Bucks are willing to live with. I like the combo prop here as well due to a slight uptick in rebounds without LaVine and Vucevic has maintained a relatively stable assists floor of 3 as well.
Pick: Nikola Vucevic over 33.5 PRA
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