NBA Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Monday
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The NBA has five games on deck on Monday, November 27. Here's everything you need to know about NBA best bets today — our expert picks for Monday.
Our betting experts have picks on totals, spreads and player props for today's best NBA bets. Let's get straight into the picks!
Lakers vs. 76ers
By Jim Turvey
The Sixers host the Lakers on Monday night, and I make this number Sixers -7.5.
It is true that the Lakers have looked better in recent weeks, but they have done so largely at home and mostly against very pedestrian opponents. Their best win all season is either their most recent in which they won against a Cavs team that was without Darius Garland for a half, or in their in-season tournament opener against a Suns team without Devin Booker.
The Sixers, on the other hand, have the second-best adjusted net rating in all of basketball this season, per Dunks and Threes and have been excellent at home. Joel Embiid has also had excellent success against the Lakers and Anthony Davis in the past two-plus seasons, averaging basically 30/9/5 on 50+ percent shooting from the field and posting a +49 in 119 minutes over the course of three games, all wins.
The Sixers defense has slipped in recent weeks, but it hasn't cost them a whole lot, and the Lakers don't really have the personnel to make them pay (namely: strong backcourt play).
I'd play this to Sixers -6.5.
Pick: Sixers -4.5
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Trail Blazers vs. Pacers
Why would you not?
The Pacer sovers have had a 93.3 percent hit rate (!!).
To this point, it's almost a cheat code. Even with the Portland Trail Blazers and their plodding selves, the Pacer pace (no awful pun intended) should be elevated enough to smoke this over. It's happened 14 of 15 times, that's not a trend, that just is what it is.
The Pacers are first in pace and scoring and have been successful at forcing other teams to run track meets… it helps that they're also bad at defense, so they know no other way.
Pick: Over 241.5
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Lakers vs. 76ers
By Joe Dellera
De'Anthony Melton has seen his role change a bit without Kelly Oubre (ribs). Without Oubre, he has seen his scoring soar to an average of 16.8 points across 8 games. He has needed to take on a larger scoring role to supplement the 76ers' offense.
I like this matchup for him against the Lakers, a team that is 13th in Adjusted Defensive Rating and plays at the ninth-fastest Pace in the League.
Melton takes roughly 50% of his shots from deep, which is a look the Lakers surrender 38.3% of the time, the eighth in the league, per Cleaning the Glass. The Lakers will have their hands full with both Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid, and I expect both Reaves and Russell to have time defending Melton, and both are players Melton should not have a ton of difficulty against.
He is over this line in 6 of 8 games without Oubre, and I expect him to make it 7 tonight.
Pick: De'Anthony Melton over 13.5 Points
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Lakers vs. 76ers
Darvin Ham has made a significant modification to the Lakers lineup and rotations and it’s paid off handsomely—especially on the offensive end.
After a blowout 128-94 loss to the Rockets on Nov. 8 (albeit without Davis), Ham decided to bring Lakers guard Austin Reaves off the bench and play more minutes with the second unit. The result has been a +4.1-point difference in Offensive Rating and a -2.9-point defensively, catapulting them from 16th in Net Rating (+.5) to second since making the change (+7.5).
The 76ers have also played well. In their last 10 games, Philly is 6-4, but they’re not blowing teams out like they did to start the season, going just 5-5 ATS in that time. A lapse in defense has caused Philadelphia’s Net Rating to slip from +12.6 through the first six games, to +2.7 since then.
Philadelphia has dominated the recent matchup against L.A., winning nine of the last 10 meetings and going 7-3 ATS in the process. However, the Lakers have shown some punch in the recent head-to-head meetings, covering two of the past three games, with their one spread loss coming in overtime.
Based on how these two teams are playing, five points is too many to lay for a Philly team that’s played four of their last five games on the road. The Lakers had a three-game home stretch prior to Saturday’s win and they’re a team that benefits from extended rest. I like the Lakers +5 and I’d take them down to +3 and take a sprinkle on the moneyline.
Pick: Lakers +5
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Trail Blazers vs. Pacers
The man re-revolutionizing the point guard position and re-introducing the idea of making your teammates better, which is what the position is for, among other things, gets a Portland Trail Blazers team who is one of the worst in the league.
I think Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers could figuratively and literally run away with this one. They're first in pace (104.1), points (128.8) and have allowed the most points (125.5) per game. The Blazers are 24th in pace (97.4), last in scoring (104.4), but just middle in the road in defense.
Styles make fights, and basketball games, and since I think the Pacers could potentially win a going away, I steered from going over 12.5 assists at +105 as a best bet, but i still might play it. At the very least, I think Hali and the Pacers get off to a hot start.
He's gotten four or more first quarter assists in three straight games and in four of his last five games.
Pick: Tyrese Haliburton over 3.5 first quarter assists (-115)
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