NBA In-Season Tournament Final Best Bets | Lakers-Pacers Picks
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Here's everything you need to know about betting the NBA tonight — our NBA In-Season Tournament Final best bets and Lakers-Pacers picks.
Our betting experts have Lakers-Pacers picks on the spread, player props and the total for the best NBA-In Season Tournament Final bets tonight. On the spread, we're backing the Lakers, while the under looks like the best bet on the total Saturday. We also are counting on a big game from the King, with two over picks for LeBron James player props, plus an over from rising star Tyrese Haliburton.
Let's get to the Lakers vs Pacers picks in our NBA In-Season Tournament best bets for Saturday night's final.
| Pacers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -115 | 242.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -105 | 242.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
Pacers vs. Lakers
By Joe Dellera
This matchup is a showdown between two generations of basketball talent. It also features contrasting styles as the Lakers attack the rim and draw fouls, while the Pacers employ an all-offense-zero-defense approach. That being said, the Pacers have tightened up on defense a bit in the Knockout Stage and any improvement may be enough to slow the Lakers a bit.
The Lakers should have a slight home-court advantage in Vegas and this will be a tougher environment than the one the Pacers played in against the Bucks with a 2:00 p.m. local tip on a neutral floor.
Ultimately, the Lakers have risen to the challenge throughout this tournament, and if I had to pick one player I wanted to lead my team in a one-game, winner-take-all scenario, I'd be hard pressed to pick someone not named LeBron James. I'll lay the points with the Lakers and hope for an exciting game!
Pick: Lakers -3.5 | Play to -4
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Pacers vs. Lakers
By Joe Dellera
LeBron James has been transcendent in the Lakers run to the In-Season Tournament Finals. I like the Lakers to take home the cup and I covered this game in greater detail here, but this is my favorite Player Prop for the In-Season Tournament Final.
LeBron is averaging 26.8 ppg in the IST but just logged 31 and 30 in the Knockout round. Indiana has no one that can defend him when he gets a full head of steam just driving through their matador defense on the perimeter. While Aaron Nesmith played admirably and defended Giannis relatively well, Giannis still dropped 37 points against the Pacers in the Semi-Final game and Nesmith nearly fouled out.
The Pacers allow opponents to get to the rim with ease while playing at the fastest Pace in the league, per Basketball Reference. They essentially funnel their opponents to the rim despite their inability to stop them. Considering the Pacers also foul at one of the highest rates in the league, this is a recipe for disaster, especially against a player who has historically gotten to the rack at will in LeBron James.
This is a bad matchup for them and a great matchup for the King. I like LeBron to go over 28.5 points and would take it up to 30+.
Pick: LeBron James over 28.5 Points
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Pacers vs. Lakers
The Pacers' league-high Pace (104.2) and scoring (128.4) could actually play to the Lakers' advantage.
The Lakers may be led by a near 40 year old, but they're eighth in Pace (100.2) as of this writing, and just blitzed the New Orleans Pelicans, meaning the main characters didn't have to exert everything they have following the Pacers' win over the Bucks.
LeBron has gone over this number in two straight . Teams are shooting 38.9% from deep against the Lakers, behind only the Spurs and Grizzlies. The Pacers also allow the fewest 3s per 100 possessions at just 25.2. Why? Because the paint is butt naked open.
It's a perfect spot for James to get his third consecutive 30-point game for the first time this season, and the Lakers will be able to generate open looks against this soft Pacers interior. James plays with this "anything you can do, I can do better" attitude against emerging stars like Tyrese Haliburton. Expect him to try going blow for blow with the Pacers offense.
Pick: LeBron James over 36.5 points + assists
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Pacers vs. Lakers
Playoffs and knockout basketball create stars, and a star has been born in Tyrese Haliburton, right before our eyes. Against Philadelphia in the pivotal IST group game, Haliburton had 33 points, 7 rebounds, and 15 assists. He had his first ever triple-double against mighty Boston in the first knockout game with 26/10/13 and followed it up with 27/7/15 in the win over Milwaukee, somehow not turning it over once in all three games.
Haliburton has been a flat out superstar. How much of a star? There's a tournament final with LeBron James and Anthony Davis, two of the most physically gifted players ever to step on a basketball court, and it's possible Haliburton might be the best player in the game. That's the level he's playing at right now.
Haliburton creates for his teammates and shoots in the right moments, and part of his value is that his unorthodox but elite shooting gives him incredible value without the ball too. He's a career 41.2% shooter from behind the arc, and that's increased to 44.1% this season even as his shot diet continues to go up in difficulty. He's also increased his 3-point volume to almost nine attempts per game and just under four makes.
In tournament games, those numbers have risen even higher. Haliburton had a clunker in the IST opener, going 0-for-5 against Cleveland. Since then, look at his volume behind the arc: 7/12, 9/15, 5/13, 5/11, and 3/9. The makes are up, and so are the attempts, and he's gone over this line in four of the last five tourney games.
The minutes are up too. Haliburton has played over 36.5 minutes in both knockout games and did so in two other IST games. Those are four of his highest minutes totals of the season, and with everything on the line, it's only reasonable to expect him to play as much as he can handle. In seven games over 36.5 minutes this season, Haliburton has averaged 6.1 treys on 12.0 attempts. He's gone over 4.5 treys in all but one of the seven.
The Lakers are top five in most 3-point attempts and makes allowed, and if anything, the Pacers may have to crank up the volume to increase variance. Haliburton should get his shots up. A career 41.2% shooter would make at least five 3s on 12 attempts about 60% of the time, but we're getting plus money, so that's in our favor. That shooter would make at least seven 3s around 18% of the time, and Haliburton has done it in three of his seven games over 36.5 minutes, so you can sprinkle seven makes at +550 (FanDuel) too for an escalator.
Bombs away, Hali.
Pick: Haliburton Over 4.5 3s
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Pacers vs. Lakers
Everybody knows about Pacers overs at this point. Indiana has the top ranked offense in the league and plays at the league's fastest pace, and it turns out that leads to a ton of points. Indiana games have gone over this number in 13 of the last 15, and Thursday's Pacers game had the highest total in ages.
That game went under, though, and so did Indiana's first knockout game. Playoff atmosphere is different, and knockout games are effectively Game 7, one after another — and we know how unders cook in Game 7s.
The Lakers play with a lot of size and physicality, and they're going to exert that upon a young Pacers team that mostly hasn't played on a stage like this before. Indiana has the worst foul rate in the league defensively, fouling opponents on over a quarter of their shots, and the Lakers are top five at drawing fouls and likely to get a kind "home" whistle, so that can really chop up the game's rhythm and slow down the pace. This is a championship game, and points will be hard to come by.
The Lakers have gone under 241.5 in all but three games this season, and two of those three times over 241.5 required overtime, with the other one at 243, one bucket away. L.A. plays fast too, but LeBron James will know how to exert his will on this game and slow the pace to play more of a Lakers brand of ball. A slower, grinding pace favors LA, so if you're hanging onto that +7000 Haliburton MVP ticket, this can be a sneaky way to semi-hedge that too, with a possible chance to cash both.
Give me the under 241.5 with this line juiced since opening at 236, and obviously grab the highest line you can find since every point could matter.
Pick: Under 241.5
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