The Denver Nuggets are one win away from accomplishing something they’ve never done in franchise history: make the NBA Finals. Standing in their way in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals is a desperate Los Angeles Lakers team led by LeBron James.
Will two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and Jamal “I'm better than a lot of players” Murray lead the Nuggets to a series sweep on Monday night at Crypto.com Arena?
Action Network’s NBA experts are all over Nuggets vs. Lakers Game 4. They’ve watched the games, they’ve crunched the numbers, and they’ve come up with five best bets. Continue reading below for all their picks, which include player props, parlays and a pick against the spread.
NBA Odds & Best Bets
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Brandon Anderson: We know by now that LeBron James adjusts his game series by series, depending on what the opponent is giving him. Until the final game against the Warriors, James had not topped eight assists all postseason but he was racking up rebounds.
In this series against Denver, those numbers are going the other direction. James has seen his rebounding numbers fade, but his assists have gone up each game. He tied his playoff high with nine in the opener, then hit 10, then 12. The potential assist numbers tell the same story, up from 15 to 17 to a playoff-high 22 in Game 3.
James doesn't have the boundless energy to attack the rim every possession due to his age and foot injury, but he can still attack with his mind. He’s picking on Denver defenders he knows he can beat, manipulating the defense to create assist opportunities for his teammates. He knows he can’t win this series without a lot of help from his friends, so he might as well try to get them going.
One friend he may not see much help from? D’Angelo Russell.
D'Lo has been absolutely miserable this series, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him dumped from the starting lineup or benched at the first sign of trouble. Russell isn’t being trusted with the ball or running point anymore. He’s averaging just 5.3 potential assists for the series and had only three last game. He just happened to convert them all, so that kept the assist line high.
I love D'Lo under 4.5 assists, and it’s worth the juice at -160. But I’ll also parlay with James to have 10 assists for a +285 DraftKings SGP.
Less D'Lo just means more time for James to run the offense and do what he can to find some scoring and try to keep the season alive. I don’t mind a 12-assist LeBron escalator at +550 either.
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Joe Dellera: Michael Porter Jr. has been dominant on the glass in this series. He is averaging nine rebounds per game on 12.3 chances, the majority of which are uncontested based on scheme.
His rebounds line is set at 6.5 (-137; BetRivers), a number he has exceeded in all five games he’s played against the Lakers this season, with 10 boards in two of them.
Additionally, he’s averaging 7.9 rebounds per game during the playoffs with 7+ in 9/14 and 8+ in 8/14. I would take the 6.5, or 7.5 at plus money and sprinkle the double-double (+400; BetRivers) in this closeout spot.
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Bryan Fonseca: After a blazing start to the playoffs with 29, 20 and 16-point efforts against the Grizzlies, Rui Hachimura's production dipped. In the Conference Semifinals, his minutes weren’t as consistent and he had just one double-digit scoring performance over six games against the Warriors.
Against the Denver Nuggets, however, Hachimura has scored 17, 21 and 13 points. He is Los Angeles’ most consistent bench threat with an 18.6 usage rating – which is fifth on the team and highest off the bench – and he’ll be heavily relied on in Game 4.
Hachimura has shot 21-of-33 (63.6%) from the field in the Western Conference Finals; he is 3-for-6 from three. A mismatch issue for the Nuggets, Hachimura, who is fourth for L.A. in scoring, is one of four Lakers at over 30 minutes per game in this series.
He's posting on Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, driving on Aaron Gordon, taking the pull up awarded by Nikola Jokić's drop and is hitting the occasional three. The Lakers need Hachimura if they hope to extend the series – and knowing that, I like this over.
Pick: Rui Hachimura Over 13.5 Points |
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Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Brandon Anderson: Michael Malone finally made the big adjustment we had been waiting for since the fourth quarter of Game 1, and it probably won Denver the series.
The Lakers put Rui Hachimura on Nikola Jokic late in the opener, and it seemed to be working. Jokic seemed flummoxed by the smaller defender, and more importantly, it freed Anthony Davis up defensively. L.A. put Davis on Aaron Gordon, usually planted in the dunker spot, and that allowed Brow to freelance all over the court as a help defender.
Well, in Game 3, Malone responded by putting Gordon on the bench in the final quarter. That effectively meant Michael Porter Jr. at the four, and it meant a five-out offense with four shooters around Jokic. No more Gordon to hide Davis on, and he got lost in no man’s land time again and again late as Denver rained threes on a 13–0 run that sure looked like a championship run.
Part of the reason that adjustment works is because MPJ is so tall and an elite positional rebounder. He ranks second in the NBA in rebound percentage converted for the playoffs, and he got 18 opportunities in Game 3. He’s recorded 10, 7 and 10 boards this series.
Gordon is a fine rebounder, but he dropped to 32 minutes in Game 4, and he’s yet to top four boards in a game in the series. His role is defending hard and spacing on offense, and his potential rebounds are down to 6.7 per game this series after recording 6+ actual rebounds in nine of 10 games entering the Western Conference Finals.
These prices are outdated, and they’re also correlated because of the Denver adjustment, so I’ll play them together in a creative escalator.
Start with Gordon under 5.5 and Porter over 6.5, parlayed together at +190 at BetRivers. That parlay is a perfect 3-for-3 so far this series.
The escalator moves one rebound in each direction: Gordon under 4.5 and MPJ over 7.5 for +425 at DraftKings. We’re one Porter rebound in Game 2 away from that one hitting all three games, too.
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Austin Wang: Denver has all the momentum, but I expect the Lakers to make one final push to save face and preserve their dignity.
In Games 2-5, favorites off an outright loss as a favorite have gone 153-112-6 (57.7%) ATS in the history of the Killer Sports SDQL database, dating back to the 2002-2003 season. Another zig-zag spot is in play for the Lakers here.
The Lakers still have a significant home-court advantage and the Nuggets’ road splits leave more to be desired. I don’t have as much confidence in the Lakers winning and covering the full game, but I think they come out strong.
Pick: Lakers 1st Half -1.5 | Play to -2 |
