It's the most wonderful time of the year! The NBA Christmas Day slate is ready for bettors to embrace like a big teddy bear under the tree — and our present to you is our NBA Christmas Day picks, predictions and bets for the Christmas Day games.
From totals to spreads and player props, here's what I'm betting on the five games on the Christmas Day slate that tips off with Bucks vs Knicks at 12 p.m. ET and goes all the way until Mavs vs Suns at 10:30 p.m. ET. Below, you'll find the full NBA Christmas Day schedule, as well as my full betting card.
Let's get to the Christmas bets!
NBA Christmas Day Games: Picks, Predictions, Odds, Bets
| Game | Time, Channel | Picks, Bets |
|---|---|---|
| Buck vs Knicks | 12 p.m. ET, ESPN | Over 240 (Play to 243) | Jalen Brunson over 26.5 points |
| Warriors vs Nuggets | 2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN | Over 233.5 (Play to 236) | Aaron Gordon over 13.5 points |
| Celtics vs Lakers | 5 p.m. ET, ABC | Under 234.5 | Derrick White points over |
| 76ers vs Heat | 8 p.m. ET, ESPN | Over 226.5 |
| Mavericks vs Suns | 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN | Mavericks +4 | Over 236 (Play to 242) |
Bucks at Knicks Picks, Predictions, Bets, Odds
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -112 | 242.5 -112o / -108u | -162 |
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -108 | 242.5 -112o / -108u | +136 |
Bucks vs Knicks Picks, Bets: Over 240 (Play to 243) | Jalen Brunson over 26.5 points
The Bucks and Knicks play the second of two games at Madison Square Garden in three days after Milwaukee's blowout win on Saturday afternoon.
When two teams play in the same location within three days and the home team is a dog in both contests, the home dog is 54% ATS after a loss in the first contest. (I was hoping for a Knicks win on Saturday; teams who win the first game as a dog are just 41.9% ATS in that second game.)
Notably, dogs only win 33% of the time in that spot despite covering 54% of the time. Of the 22 teams that have covered in that spot, 14 have won the game outright. Meanwhile, only eight of the 28 teams teams to lose the game have covered.
To make this more direct: You should bet Knicks moneyline if you think New York covers and lay the 3 with Milwaukee if you think the Bucks win.
The Knicks are 4-7 straight up, 3-8 ATS versus teams over .500, including 0-3 at the Garden. They are 0-6 vs. the Celtics and Bucks straight up and 1-4-1 ATS.
Milwaukee's been an absolute beast lately, and their defense is finally trending in the right direction. New York has had trouble with elite teams, and Milwaukee in particular. They've lost the three games against the Bucks by 48 points combined, and the gap has widened with each meeting; New York is not adapting. Plus, the Knicks are without Mitchell Robinson due to injury, which takes away one of their strengths on the offensive glass.
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THE BET: Over 240 (Play to 243) | Jalen Brunson over 26.5 points
I project this total at 245, the closing number in the Saturday game, which went under by three points in garbage time.
Milwaukee's offense continues to absolutely blister the nets with shooting. New York shot 29% from 3 in the game on Saturday, which was what held them to an offensive rating of 108. The over is 192-152-3 in games where a team is home after shooting below 30% from 3 the past two seasons. We should see some measure of regression from the Knicks.
Oh, one more mini-trend: the over is 4-1 in Bucks Christmas Day games.
Jalen Brunson's overs are a good place to look as he has gone over his 26.5 points prop in three of the last four meetings against the Bucks, and Milwaukee's drop coverage gives him a lot of space to attack with this floater.
Warriors at Nuggets Picks, Predictions, Bets, Odds
| Warriors Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 234.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 234.5 -110o / -110u | -280 |
Warriors vs Nuggets Picks, Bets: Over 233.5 (Play to 236) | Aaron Gordon over 13.5 points
Trap, trap, trap. The Nuggets are off an East Coast road trip on a 3-games-in-4-nights stint in their first game at home. That's a notoriously bad spot, but the data doesn't really back that up. Teams in that spot are 68% SU and 49% ATS since 2018. It's definitely not profitable to back those teams, but fading them isn't especially so, either.
The Warriors are going to be power-rated lower without Draymond Green and given their season-long struggles. But they've won five in a row to get over .500, and don't tell anyone in the Bay, but they're playing legitimately better without Green on the floor. So the market is probably a little behind the Warriors.
Then again, this is only a point off the preseason lookahead, with Denver looking at least as good as expected and the Warriors significantly worse.
… But the Nuggets are such a wagon at home. With Joker and Murray in the lineup, they are 23-15-2 ATS at home since Murray's return from injury last year in the regular season. They're also 34-6 straight up.
Denver has only played the Warriors once with Murray and Jokic since the start of last season, last February, when both Draymond Green and Aaron Gordon were out.
Denver can struggle with teams that shoot more 3s than they do; Denver is a low 3-point-volume team. They are 6-6 SU and 4-8 ATS when the opponent makes more 3s than they do. When the opponent averages more on the season, however, Denver is 10-9-1 ATS. To make sense of that: Denver shoots more threes against opponents who average more 3s than them, but if the opponent does outpace them, they struggle to cover.
So yeah, the Splash Brothers might not be a great matchup.
Fun Christmas trend: Steph Curry is 2-7 ATS on Christmas Day.
With league-average homecourt advantage, I have value on the Warriors. But the Nuggets enjoy a +3.27 ATS margin at home, and I project them with a ~6-point homecourt advantage which makes this Nuggets-8.
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THE BET: OVER 233.5, Aaron Gordon over 13.5 points
I'll respect the improved play by the Warriors and stay away from the side, but I make this total 246.5. Denver has been an under home team the last two seasons (38-26-1 to the under), but Denver's offense is too good, and the Warriors' offense is surging. Also, to battle the Nuggets home trend, the over is 39-22-1 in Warriors road games since last season, including 8-6 this season.
The over is 17-14 (regular season) in Warriors games in Denver in the Kerr era. That's a more wonky sample, even if it's larger; this isn't the 2015-2018 team. But it at least shows that Kerr's teams don't struggle to score in the altitude.
Without Green underneath, Gordon should continue his strong play; he's gone over in 6-of-10 and has picked it up after a brief injury absence.
Celtics at Lakers Picks, Predictions, Bets, Odds
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -112 | 234.5 -110o / -110u | -166 |
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -108 | 234.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
Celtics vs Lakers Picks, Bets: Under 234.5, Derrick White points over
The Celtics are way better. They are a much better team than the Lakers and the best team in the NBA by the advanced metrics. They are a short favorite on equal rest.
But the spot and matchup are good for the Lakers.
For starters, the Lakers are 10-3 straight up at home. They are 9.2 points better than their overall point differential at home. Now, they're 3-4 ATS at home vs. teams over .500 this season.
Boston can be stymied by rim protection, and the Lakers have a lot of it with Anthony Davis and the big wings the Lakers bring to the table. When getting to the rim isn't easy, they settle for jumpers, which leans toward the Lakers' style of play. The Celtics can compensate by just shooting the 3-ball well, as they lead the league in road 3-pointer makes. But tilting this game towards variance is an ideal outcome for the Lakers.
Can the Lakers keep up offensively? That's what makes the Lakers a bad bet. The spot is good, at home, in a spotlight situation (like the In-Season Tournament games where they dominated), versus a team in LA for the Christmas Holiday weekend coming off a big comfortable win on Saturday against the Clippers.
One big issue for the Lakers? The gap in backcourt defense is a mile wide; it's Derrick White and Jrue Holiday versus D'Angelo Russell and Cam Reddish or Austin Reaves. Yikes.
Both teams will give their best effort here not only for Christmas but for the Lakers-Celtics rivalry.
LeBron is 6-6 straight up and ATS on Christmas, but just 2-4 SU and ATS in his last six times on Christmas.
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THE BET: Under 234.5, Derrick White points over
It's Lakers or nothing on the side, but I just can't get there on this number. Multiple possessions on the spread, and I'd be on the Lakers. I have a huge projection edge on this game based on the Lakers' homecourt advantage, but this game is already being directionally set towards the Lakers.
If you're going to bet the Lakers, bet the moneyline; Boston is still really rough in clutch time situations.
This total is down a full five points from the open, and that's annoying, but it's still the right side, and I think there's value on this under to this number and no further.
In Lakers home games vs. teams over .500, the Lakers' team total is 5-2 to the under, and the opponent team's total is 6-1 to the under, so the under is 6-1 in those games. Eastern Conference teams in LA have an under record of 34-25 (57.8%) since the Bubble.
The Lakers' perimeter defense may be poor, but the Celtics won't lean on Holiday and White; Tatum, Brown, and Porzingis will still get the most touches. The Lakers play a low 3-point rate style, and that's tough vs. Boston's defense which contests at a high level.
Derrick White will have a low number because like I said, those guys still won't have a huge amount of touches. But the efficiency will be high with how he plays versus the Lakers' coverage and weak perimeter defense.
76ers at Heat Picks, Predictions, Bets, Odds
| 76ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 226 -112o / -108u | +124 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 226 -112o / -108u | -146 |
76ers vs Heat Picks, Bets: Over 226
UPDATE: Of course I write this whole thing about how this Sixers team is different, and Joel Embiid will miss the game against a quality opponent on the road. The only team above .500 that Embiid has played against on the road this season is the Oklahoma City Thunder and 207 lb. center Chet Holmgren.
Anyway, with Embiid out and the line moved to Heat -3, obviously, I don't think there's value on the Sixers here; this number is about right with Embiid out. But I do still like the over. The over is 20-13 (61%) when Embiid doesn't play in the regular season since 2021-22. The Sixers lose rim protection and the team plays faster. So I like the over more with Embiid now on the shelf.
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THE BET: OVER 226
Mavericks at Suns Picks, Predictions, Bets, Odds
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -112 | 238.5 -112o / -108u | +152 |
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -108 | 238.5 -112o / -108u | -180 |
Mavericks vs Suns Picks, Bets: Mavericks +4 | Over 237.5 (Play to 242)
Dereck Lively is back for the Mavericks (per Marc Stein) in this one, and that's all I need to get the value on Dallas. Based on full-season numbers, I make this Mavericks -4.25, and Kyrie Irving cannot account for that differential.
The Suns are desperate, so it's a good spot for them, but more than one possession is too much for the Mavericks with Lively back. Dallas is 14-9 ATS with Lively in the lineup, 1-5 without him.
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THE BET: Mavericks +4 | Over 237.5 (Play to 242)
I project this to 250, and even without Irving, there are so many paths to get here. The Suns should score easily; it's very possible the Mavericks do the same as Luka continues to pour in points, and the Suns' defense is bad enough to get there. Small play on this based off the Mavs' slow pace, but I'll still bet this over, which is up 7.5 points from the open.
MONEYLINE ROUND ROBIN
Bucks
Nuggets
Lakers
Sixers
Suns
