It all comes down to Sunday.
The Philadelphia 76ers have a chance make it past the second round for the first time since 2001. The Boston Celtics are looking to make their fifth appearance in the Eastern Conference finals in the past seven seasons. Sunday's Game 7 could end up being the pivot point for the future of one of these two franchises.
Action Network's NBA analysts have four best bets today, featuring a same game parlay, a player prop, a bet on the over/under and the spread. Read on for their expert picks and predictions for 76ers vs Celtics Game 7.
NBA Odds & Best Bets
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics
Brandon Anderson: Usually I bet the analysis. Occasionally I bet the spot. Today, I'm betting the narrative.
The Boston Celtics always win this Game 7, and James Harden, Joel Embiid, and these 76ers always lose it.
Home teams win 77% of all Game 7s, and Boston is even better at 21-5 (81%). The Celtics are 26-9 in Game 7s all-time, 10 more wins than any other NBA team. The Sixers are 6-11, with more such losses than any franchise. Boston is 5-2 in Game 7s against Philly, and the Sixers haven't beaten the Cs in a playoff series in over four decades.
Prefer something more recent? In four Game 7 starts, James Harden is shooting 28-of-81, below 35% from the field including a disastrous 7-of-41 on 3s — 17%! He's averaged five turnovers in those games (take the over 2.5 turnovers!) and let his team down repeatedly.
Joel Embiid has played two Game 7s. The first was Mother's Day 2019, when Kawhi Leonard hit every part of the rim to knock Embiid out. The second was Father's Day 2021, when Ben Simmons decided not to dunk and the Hawks shocked Philly. It's Mother's Day 2023. You do the math.
Losing is in these guys' DNA. The Celtics win in this spot. This Boston core is 5-1 in Game 7s since 2017. Tatum and Brown have had big moments, and Marcus Smart has a knack for showing up big in these biggest moments. Al Horford is also 6-2 lifetime in Game 7s.
I expect Harden to shrink in a big moment, and I think the Celtics roll against a Sixers team that visibly gave up late in Game 6. Harden had two huge scoring games this series but is at 17 or below the other four. As excited as we are for Game 7s, half of all Game 7s since 2011 have been won by double digits, 14 of those 18 wins (78%) by the home team.
Give me the Celtics to hold Harden below 18 and win comfortably by double digits. Build the SGP at DraftKings for +400.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics
Joe Dellera: This is an elimination game and I expect the Boston Celtics starters to play as many minutes as they can handle. Jaylen Brown should have his fingerprints all over this game especially as Jayson Tatum has struggled with his shot all series.
So far this series, Brown has averaged 2.8 turnovers per game with at least three turnovers in four of the previous six games including back-to-back games with three and four turnovers respectively. His Turnover Percentage is 14.5% this series, which is a significant uptick from his already high 11.9% on the regular season.
I’ll take Brown to cough up the ball at least three more times Sunday, something he’s done in 67% of his games this postseason.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics
Matt Moore: I have two bets that I'm making for 76ers-Celtics, which I wrote about in detail in my Game 7 column (you can read that here).
Unders in Game 7's are 36-24 (60%) since 2003 and 10-1 since 2017, not including the Bubble. These games are always rock fights. This is a square, obvious play against a ridiculously low number. But I'm backing the history of it, especially with how these teams are feast or famine when it comes to 3-point barrages.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics
Jacob McKenna: I broke down all the angles of this Game 7 matchup in Sunday's Sixers-Celtics betting guide (you can read that here), but I'm betting the spread here. The 76ers are not known for playing at a fast pace. Per NBA.com they are generating just 92.04 offensive possessions per game in the postseason, the second-fewest of the 16 playoff teams. That rises slightly to 93.67 in the three games played in Boston in this series, but it is still well below Philadelphia's season Pace of 97.44.
The slower pace has helped the Sixers keep things close against Celtics. The Celtics went from generating 101.67 offensive possessions per game in Round 1 against Atlanta to generating just 93.05 against the 76ers, which goes a long way against a team that has had some stars struggle with their shooting.
I'm expecting the slow pace to continue in Game 7, allowing for a low-scoring, tightly contested game. I'm not sure that it will be so low scoring that the total stays below 201, but I feel comfortable backing the 76ers on the spread and I would play it to 5.5.
Pick: 76ers +6.5 |
