The workweek is coming to an end and the NBA Playoffs are rolling along with a trio of Game 3 on Friday. What could be sweeter than that? Friday's games include the Celtics vs Hawks (7 p.m. ET) — a series in which the Hawks are in desperate need of win — Cavaliers vs Knicks (8:30 p.m ET) in prime time and Nuggets vs. Timberwolves (9:30 p.m. ET) in the late slot.
Action's NBA staff has the entire slate covered with five best bets today, including player props and two bets on the same side of a first quarter spread. Read on for their in-depth analysis and expert picks for Friday.
NBA Odds & Best Bets
Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks
Brandon Anderson: This has never felt like a Clint Capela series. Capela no longer has the physicality or the foot speed to keep up with this Boston attack or with Robert Williams' athleticism, and Onyeka Okongwu is a better fit for the matchup with his ability to switch and move in defense.
In Game 2, we saw Capela down to 22 minutes, recording just four points and seven rebounds. Okongwu was up to 24 minutes, about four or five up from his usual, and he didn't put up eye-popping numbers but did dominate the glass again.
Okongwu has really seen his offensive rebounding numbers pop since Quin Snyder took over, and he's been a beast on the offensive glass against the Celtics. He has 24 offensive rebounds in five Boston games, with five in both playoff games and all but one of the games on the season. Atlanta is struggling to score but had 19 offensive rebounds, so they need these second chance opportunities.
Okongwu has at least five boards in 18 straight games, so that steady floor puts us within one of the over. He's averaging 8.0 RPG in five games against Boston with at least eight boards in all but one, so the 8+ rebounds prop at +210 also looks a bit mispriced. Even double-digit boards at +600 could be in play if the minutes swing a lot.
I'll place most of my bet on just the traditional over here with the minutes still in flux. Okongwu has hit this over in 16 of his last 18 games.
New York Knicks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Bryan Fonseca: Quentin Grimes hasn't had a good offensive series yet. However, he's been a marksman in Madison Square Garden leading up to the playoffs.
Since the All-Star break, Grimes shot 36-of- 72, an even 50% from beyond the arc, in games played at Madison Square Garden, averaging 3.6 makes per contest over the 10-game sample size.
Additionally, he has made over 1.5 threes at home in each of his last four efforts, and in seven of his last eight. He's only 1-of-6 from deep in the series, but the Knicks will continue to find him for open looks as long as he's out there, especially if position-mate R.J. Barrett maintains his level of underwhelming play thus far.
New York Knicks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Anderson: This series has been a tale of two games so far.
In Game 1, Donovan Mitchell was really the only Cavs player to show up. Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and other young Cleveland players struggled in their playoff debuts, and the Knicks dominated with physicality and depth. Game 2 saw that physical battle swing the other way as Mobley and Jarrett Allen stepped up on both ends of the court and Garland had a huge offensive game to even the series up.
So which version will we get in Game 3? Who wins the physical battle as we shift to New York?
That part of the equation remains to be seen, but I'm playing that shift to New York. The Cavs were just 20-21 on the road, and this is another debut for this young team. Madison Square Garden will be rocking and loud, and it might take guys like Garland and Mobley a minute to adjust again.
The Knicks ranked second in the NBA in first quarter net rating at home at +16.3 this season, while the Cavs were -4.1 on the road in that spot. We'll see how the depth and physicality battle rages as the game wears on, but I like the Knicks to respond to the Game 2 loss and take a quick lead early by winning the first quarter.
New York Knicks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Joe Dellera: One of the Knicks' strengths this season has been their performance in the first quarter. The Knicks are the second-best team in the league against the spread in the first quarter at home this season at 25-15-1, while the Cavaliers are 19-21-1 ATS on the road in the first quarter.
Moreover, this is the first road playoff game for many of the Cavaliers' players, so while New York will welcome the home environment, the crowd may be a tough adjustment for many of the younger Cavaliers' players.
Both teams have made a few adjustments and still have many they can make over the course of what I still expect to be a long series. However, in this spot, I expect the Knicks to start off strong as they have all season.
Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Anderson: This is a do-or-die spot for the Wolves, coming home down 0-2. We know no team in NBA history has come back from a 3-0 deficit. Does Minnesota have that fight in them? Will Denver show an ability to step on an opponent's throat and slam the door?
Historically, this has been a profitable spot to bet on the home team — in the first half. Since 2007, teams down 0-2 returning home for Game 3 are 79-47-9 ATS in the first half, covering 62.6% of the time. That mark has dropped to 15-15-2 since 2018, but .500 isn't bad for a downswing, especially considering pandemic and other factors.
Denver has a -1.9 Net Rating in road first halves, even as the West 1-seed, and the Nuggets rank 22nd in the NBA at -6.5 Net Rating in just the second quarter on the road. Minnesota isn't exactly elite in those spots, even at home, but I'd rather trust the Wolves to fight for their season early then rely on them to finish the job late. I'll take Minnesota +0.5 in the first half.
