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I'm expecting the Cavaliers, down 3-1 and back at home, to come out stronger as more desperate team early. The Cavaliers have impressive home road splits in the first half this season compared to Knicks.
- Cavs First Half Margin: +3.8 home | +1.1 road this season
- Knicks First Half Margin: +5.0 home | 0.0 road this season
- This series First Half in Cleveland: Cavs 52.0 | Knicks 44.5
- This series First Half in New York: Knicks 49.5 | Cavs 38.5
The Knicks haven’t exactly lit up the scoreboard with just 98.0 PPG (full) and 47.0 PPG (1H) across the four games, so the Cleveland backcourt must simply shoot better for them to cover – and it has done so at home this series.
- Darius Garland: 15-of-30 (50%) at home | 13-37 (35.1%) on the road
- Donovan Mitchell: 20-of-41 (48.8%) at home | 14-37 (37.8%) on the road
Per Action Labs, home teams coming off back-to-back losses entering Games 3-7 are 122-74-5 (62%) in the first half when spread is within 5.5 since 2005.
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The Memphis Grizzlies have one of the best home crowds in the NBA and the Grizzlies need them tonight to stave off elimination down 3-1 to the Los Angeles Lakers entering Game 5. The Grizzlies are 62-28 (69%) against the first half spread since 2021 and 30-13 ATS in the first half this season.
This older (insert Dillon Brooks quote) Lakers team could struggle on road coming off one day of rest after an overtime game in which LeBron James played 45 min and Anthony Davis 41 minutes despite some lingering injury issues. I'm expecting this home crowd to be raucous and allow the Grizzlies to come out strong as the more desperate team with their backs against the wall.
The Grizzlies also fit this trend from Action Labs. Top-4 seeded Conference home favorites of -1 to -3.5 coming off a loss of less than 20 points are 85-41-1 (68%) in the first half since 2005.
Pick: Grizzlies -1.5 1H |
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Giannis Antetokounmpo's presence int he lineup significantly improves the Milwaukee Bucks defense. The Heat are scoring 3.4 fewer points per 100 possessions with Antetokounmpo on the court in this series. His presence can also result in the team shooting fewer 3-pointers — the Bucks are actually averaging 4.1 more points per 100 possessions with Antetokounmpo off the court this series.
In the first three games of series with Antetokounmpo mostly out, these teams combined to score 126.0 points per game in the first half. In Game 4, that dropped to 107 points. The Heat have been uncharacteristically hot from the perimeter — 47.6% from 3 overall, 46.3% from 3 in the first half — and are getting good looks, but they are still due for shooting regression.
Bucks home first half unders are 7-2 (77.8%) this season when they are favored by 10 or more (they are favored by 12 tonight) and 14-20 (41.2%) otherwise. Since 2018, in Games 3-7 of Eastern Conference series in which the first half total is 114 or less, the under is 86-30-2 (68.8%) covering by 4.1 points per game per Action Labs.
Pick: Heat-Bucks Under 112.5 1H |
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Fox suffered a broken index finger on his shooting hand in Game 4, but he’s posted points + rebounds + assist totals of 44, 38, 44, and 52 in the first four games, averaging 44.5 per contest. The line implies he’ll be just 80% of his true self, which seems drastic – especially after what we’ve seen from other star players playing through injury in the playoffs.
Ja Morant dropped 45/9/13 playing through a hand injury in Game 3 of Grizzlies-Lakers, Giannis Antentokounpo 26/10/13 playing through a glute injury in Game 4 of Bucks-Heat, while Jimmy Butler dropped in the same game 56/9/2 playing through a glute injury of his own.
Fox won’t be 100%, but we’ve seen time and time again injuries to star players tend to be overblown in the interest of gamesmanship. I'd bet this prop up to 37.5.
